10 Things that need to happen for Texas to have success in 2020...
We're a week away from UT's 2020 season kickoff against UTEP. Yes, the college football season for the Longhorns is actually happening. Well, at least right now it's actually happening. The Longhorns want to avoid another disappointment like the 2019 season, which resulted in numerous new coaching hires.
Here are 10 things that need to happen for the Longhorns to have a good season in 2020:
1. Sam Ehlinger must be consistently good or better.
Texas finished 93rd nationally in FootballOutsiders.com’s Offense Busted Drive rate metric. Basically, Texas was one of the worst power-five offenses at avoiding drives that resulted in zero or negative yards. That can’t happen again.
Ehlinger had some truly elite performances last season, but he also had some duds. Of UT’s losses last season, Ehlinger finished with passer ratings of 114.8 or worse in three of them – Oklahoma, at TCU and at Baylor.
Each game the Longhorns don’t need the 203.1 and 204.4 ratings the Austin Westlake product finished with to end 2019. Although, that would obviously put Ehlinger in New York City for the Heisman. But they do need him to set the floor as something like 135. He’s a senior, enters this season as the current NCAA leader in total yards and probably the most experienced quarterback in the country. If he’s at least consistently good, it’ll help mask other team weaknesses. Considering he’s unlikely to face a top 10 defense all season, the expectation to be good or better each game isn’t unrealistic.
2. The offensive line must stay healthy.
You don’t want to find out what’s behind door No. 2 when it comes to the Texas offensive line. Ehlinger is the most important player on the roster. Sam Cosmi is second, and Derek Kerstetter might be third.
3. UT’s new coordinators must be upgrades.
Offensively, Texas was one of the best units in the country last season. It finished No. 10 in S&P+ and No. 13 in FEI. However, as mentioned in point one, Texas can be better on offense. Actually, it can be much better because there was a huge statistical gap between the fop five S&P+ and FEI offenses last season and the next tier.
The question about the Texas defense isn’t if it’ll improve. Rather, how much will the Longhorns improve on defense? If Chris Ash is who Tom Herman thinks he is, improving from 54th in FEI and 68th in S&P+ should be easy. If it’s not, yikes.
4. Let’s not forget about those position coaches…
A driving force behind Herman’s assistant coach and coordinator shopping spree was development. Clearly, the Texas head coach feels he has the requisite talent to win the Big 12. And clearly, he didn’t see anywhere close to the level of development in his talented recruiting classes, many of those players now juniors, he wanted to see.
Herman and Texas need the development to be much better, especially for those now veteran players who have shown flashes and don’t lack experience.
5. And let’s also not forget about Herman…
The Texas head coach candidly admitted he wasn’t the best version of himself as a head coach last season, which was another reason for the substantial staff changes. This is year four. This is supposed to be the year. This is the year Herman circled the moment he arrived because he knew a couple of stacked recruiting classes would be older and Ehlinger would be a senior.
Herman must be at his best this season. More Utah. Less TCU and Baylor.
6. Good players being good players...
Speaking of development, the Longhorns need their best players to perform at that level. Joseph Ossai, Cosmi, Kerstetter, Ehlinger, Caden Sterns, D’Shawn Jamsion and whoever else wants to step up in the secondary, Brennan Eagles, Jake Smith… If at the end of the season we’re looking at all-conference lists and they only include two or three names on the first-team, the Longhorns probably didn’t have the season everyone expected.
7. Sacks…
The Longhorns need the move to a four-man base defensive line to result in more disruption, and definitely more sacks. During the 2019 regular season, Texas averaged just 1.8 sacks per game. The quarterback hit rate was even more hideous.
Yes, offenses, especially in the Big 12, are often in the shotgun and getting the ball out quick. Fair. But what we saw against Utah could have occurred much more frequently last season, and Texas should never finish behind five Big 12 teams in sacks per game.
And by the way, the Longhorns finished dead last in sacks against last season, which is attached to the hip of point number one. The Longhorns can’t lose the sack battle, and a consistently, confident, comfortable quarterback in a better offense won’t take 36 sacks this season.
8. Get more possessions than the other team…
Yeah, we can apply a bit of a basketball outlook to college football, especially the Big 12. Perhaps games in the league, most notably when good teams are playing good teams, can be simply summarized by which great offense and quarterback get more possessions.
Last year, Texas finished plus-five in turnover margin, which resulted in 0.38 more turnovers per game than opponents. Not bad. It ranked in a tie for 33rd nationally. Doubling that turnover-per-game rate would put Texas around 10-15 nationally, which is reasonable and would make a significant difference.
The Longhorns finished No. 18 last season in offensive turnover rate and No. 43 on defense.
9. The rushing attack and running back group need to be a strength…
Frankly, there isn’t a good reason this shouldn’t happen. Texas added all-world freshman running back Bijan Robinson to a proven duo of Keaontay Ingram and Roschon Johnson. All three can be impact receivers in the pass game, and all three should easily average better than 5.0 yards per carry this season, especially after both Ingram and Johnson eclipsed the mark in 2019.
10. Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton need to make an immediate and fairly consistent impact…
Robinson is the biggest, most talented freshman on the roster, but you could make a case Collins/Broughton could be more important. This is a program that recruited for a different, three-man front scheme for years and is now making the switch to use more defensive linemen differently. The Longhorns lack proven pass rushers and proven disruptors in general along the defensive line.
They don’t just need Collins and Broughton to play. They need them to make an impact.