The NBA Draft is coming up on Thursday, and there are some former Longhorns who have decided to try to make their pro basketball dreams come true. Though I only see one of the four possible players going in the first round, each has upside that could possibly translate to the next level. There is a ton of raw athletic ability in this crop of players, particularly in the first three, but some lacking skill. Most of them would be considered “projects” in the Association; that doesn’t mean they won’t get a shot though.
Here’s my breakdown of the four Longhorns who declared for the draft.
KAI JONES, FORWARD/CENTER
Kai Jones is a highly athletic 6’11, 220-lbs forward/center from the Bahamas who declared after this sophomore season. He averaged 8.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 0.9 BPG in 22.8 MPG. Though not eye-popping numbers, Jones only started four games, and does some things well on the offensive end.
First of all, he’s a high-flying athlete. He has really good bounce for a guy at his size, and was always a lob threat, especially in transition.
He had a high field-goal percentage of 58.0% on the year, going for 64.2% on twos and 38.2% on threes. He took about 1.3 threes per game, going 13/34 in total. Now, that’s not a huge sample size of his shooting prowess from deep, but he has a nice stroke.
There are a couple of issues with Kai Jones that will likely prevent him from being a lottery pick despite his frame and physical tools. The first problem is that though he can spot up and is good in motion, he has trouble creating his own shot. He generally needs to be found in order to score easily.
Another issue with Kai Jones is his habit of getting into foul trouble - he averaged the second-highest amount of fouls per game with 2.7 despite being fifth in average minutes. Against more skilled offensive players at the next level, this will be a weakness that opposing coaches will exploit, especially given the emphasis on free-throw shooting in the modern NBA. Part of this is just the position he plays, as when Jericho Sims was not on the floor, he was asked to play rim protector. He’s a decent shot-blocker with the potential to be great, but he didn’t put up crazy numbers in that category, and isn’t quite there yet.
Generally speaking on the offensive end, however, he was stifled by the stagnancy of Shaka Smart’s game plan - not to overly criticize the former Longhorns coach, but there was not a lot of off-ball movement or screening going on, which is the way that Jones has been able to score. He’s not a basketball lifer either, having grown up in the Bahamas and not played until later, so it would definitely be an upside pick for whoever takes a chance on him.
Something that relates to this fact and points to his ability to adapt however is his improvement from his freshman to his sophomore season, where he more than doubled his offensive output, going from 3.6 PPG to 8.8. His increase in minutes contributed to this, but it was not a super drastic difference (16.7 to 22.8 MPG). He increased his FG% from 50.0% to 58.0%, and his three-point FG% from 29.2% to 38.2%. Improvement over time is going to be the key to this pick working out. He’s still learning the game.
Though I believe he will go mid-first round, a couple of good mock drafts that I’ve seen have had Jones going 11th to the Hornets because Michael Jordan has interest in him, so this will be something to keep an eye out for. If he doesn’t go there, he will likely slip out of the lottery.
DRAFT PREDICTION: FIRST ROUND, 15th-20th PICK
GREG BROWN, FORWARD
Greg Brown is the former five-star one-and-done from Vandegrift High School north of Austin, whose single-season career at Texas had its ups and downs. He absolutely showed some potential - athleticism, slashing ability, and a decent three-point stroke (though not super consistent). He averaged 9.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 1.0 BPG on 20.6 MPG. He shot 42% from the field in total and 33% on threes.
He seemingly regressed through the season, however, and got less and less playing time as the year went on. He played just 25 minutes over his last three games, and showed signs of frustration while on the court later on in the year. He scored just 18 over his last five games combined. He broke 20 points just once on the year in an early season game versus Oklahoma State. He also led the team in fouls per game at 3.0. So he’s raw, but there is enough upside to say that he will be drafted most likely early in the second round.
What I do like about Brown’s game is his ability to slash. He has a quick first-step and can cut to the basket despite a large frame. Below, watch him take his man off the dribble and drive it to the rack, finishing through contact on the and-one.
He does it again here, attacking the basket with ferocity.
He has nice form shooting from deep as well. Though he didn’t shoot super highly percentage-wise (33%), he has a naturalness to his stroke that gives me confidence that he can develop over time. His 71.2% from the FT line just increases my belief that he can get better in this area. Here are a couple of examples of his three-point shot.
There is another problem with Brown, however: his assist-to-turnover ratio. He averaged just 0.4 assists per game to 2.3 turnovers. He struggled to get teammates involved and could be careless with the ball. He had trouble in the passing game despite his ability to cut to the basket. In the NBA, where drive-and-kick is the system within which offenses operate, this is a problem. He’s going to need to improve his facilitation to play consistent minutes at the next level. If he can do that, he will see the floor a lot more.
DRAFT PROJECTION: 35th - 40th PICK
JERICHO SIMS, CENTER
Jericho Sims is another freak athlete front-court player who declared for the NBA Draft after this past year. He had averages of 9.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 1.1 BPG in his senior campaign on 24.5 MPG. He had an impressive 69.6% on FG, an increase from the already impressive 65.8% last season.
Sims excels in most big-man duties - blocking shots, rebounding, put-backs. Though called a forward sometimes, he seems to me to be a traditional center in every sense of the word.
An advantage he has is his ridiculous hops. He’s absurdly gifted physically, with an outrageous 44.5” max vert and 37” standing vert at the NBA Combine. Offensively, he’s good in the pick ‘n’ roll, as can be seen in the clip below, playing high PNR with Courtney Ramey.
His abilities are on display in this next GIF with this block in the Big 12 Championship game vs. Oklahoma State. Note the timing of the jump and body control to recover the ball and get it out of his hands before falling out of bounds.
Here’s another example, this time of a block in transition. He runs the floor and times the jump perfectly. His hangtime in the air is impressive, and a representation of his prowess athletically.
He also has active hands and with his length can disrupt passing lanes. In this game versus OSU, he had three steals. Here he is intercepting a pass intended for future number-one pick Cade Cunningham, passing it off, then rolling to the basket and forcing his way in for the slam.
His physicality is his greatest asset without question. At 6’10, 245-lbs, he’s built, and can set himself on the block and hold it down. He possesses a 7’3 wingspan on top of his height. His draft stock will rely almost entirely on his ability to defend and finish at the rim however, as he has no real outside game to speak of.
He struggles to score away outside of a few feet, never developing a mid- or long-range game. The fact that he shot 52% from the free-throw line casts doubt on the possibility of his ever developing any kind of shot as well. He took one three pointer in his four-year career at Texas (and missed it). In the era of stretch bigs, this could be considered a knock on his potential as a long-term option.
DRAFT PREDICTION: 40th-45th Pick
MATT COLEMAN, POINT GUARD
Matt Coleman is a 6’2, 180-lbs point guard prospect from Norfolk, VA. As a senior, he averaged 13.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 4.0 APG on 34.4 MPG, and was arguably the best player on the Longhorns’ roster last season. He was the engine for the offense, its main facilitator and ball handler, and a leader from a personnel standpoint. He started all four years at Texas, and though there was never a super drastic improvement from one season to another, he gradually became a better scorer over his career. He improved from 10.2 PPG his freshman, adding three PPG to his average by his final season.
There’s a lot to like about Coleman’s game, but he is held back by two important factors at the next level: (a) size and (b) age. He’s not big for his position, and lacks the dynamic athleticism that could make up for that fact. He also isn’t a good enough shooter to overcome it. Additionally, by the time the next NBA season is halfway through, Coleman will be 24 years old, which makes me, a 27-year-old, feel ancient by comparison.
The issue with undersized guards in the NBA is that they will struggle defensively, particularly on switches. Also, when you have gigantic guys as primary ball handlers, a la James Harden, Luka Doncic, LaMelo Ball, Cade Cunningham, etc, it is impossible to guard them at his stature (maybe those are bad examples - since no one can guard those particular players).
While Coleman was a great college player and a fantastic leader despite the disappointing end to his career, he does not project to the pros (at least the American pros) in my opinion. He has the BBIQ to play in the NBA, but lacks the physical tools to do so. I could see Coleman playing overseas and being successful there. But I just don’t see it in the Association.
DRAFT PROJECTION: UDFA
