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Big XII Championship: (2) Texas vs. (1) Kansas (5pm CST tip, ESPN)

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Seth Fowler graduated from Texas in 1998. Since 2004, he has been helping home buyers and sellers in the DFW Metroplex. Whether new construction, existing homes, investment property, or land, he is your Real Estate Sherpa - guiding you through the process, making it an enjoyable experience. Based in Tarrant County, however, he will help connect you with a quality Realtor anywhere in Texas, the United States, or in the world. When looking to purchase or sell real estate in this new market, call Seth at 817.980.6636.

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Primer. 

The Big XII Championship is here, and this time, it actually involves Texas. The second-seeded Longhorns fought their way through a brutal conference tourney to get to where they are now, beating Oklahoma State 60-47 in the second round and TCU 66-60 in the semifinals.

Despite their struggling guard play, Texas' front court has come alive in this tournament, as Dylan Disu and Christian Bishop dominated the last game to the tune of 30 points, 15 rebounds, five blocks and three steals combined. Though their guards couldn't shoot to save their lives, the inside presence kept Texas in the lead for the entire game, as the Longhorns won wire to wire.

Kansas made their way to the title game beating up on West Virginia, 78-61, and then Iowa State, 71-58. Make no mistake, this Kansas team is not going to get embarrassed like they did at the Moody Center one week ago, where the 'Horns dominated, 75-59. Kansas beat Texas at Phog Allen, 88-80, in what was possibly Marcus Carr's best-ever performance as a Longhorn with 29 points in the loss.

It would be nice to see that Marcus Carr today. He's been in a slump as of late, hitting just five of his last 30 three-point attempts. So what's going on with him?

I think honestly that it is mostly just the amount of minutes played this season for him that has him exhausted. Over the course of the year, he has played 1106 minutes, an average of 33.5 minutes per game. He played more minutes on average when he was at Minnesota, but he never played in a postseason other than the Big 10 Tournament.

In his last three games, he's played 36 minutes, 40 minutes, and 37 minutes. He's played 76 minutes out of 80 possible in this conference tournament. I don't care what age you are, that will wear you out. Once he has some time to rest after today's game, I think he will have his legs under him once again for the NCAA Tournament.


Injury Report. 

Texas and Kansas are each missing a key player in this game: KU guard Kevin McCullar and UT forward Timmy Allen are out with minor injuries. As they are both top three or four players on their respective teams, it's a bit of a wash that they're both out, as both provide quite a bit of positive production.

McCullar is dealing with back spasms, while Timmy Allen is dealing with a right calf tweak. They should both be back for the NCAA Tournament, and their sitting out is more of a precaution than a necessity.

My colleague Nick Moyle of the San Antonio Express News caught up with Timmy Allen and asked him about the calf:

Kansas Strengths. 

KU is a really well-rounded team; they have pieces everywhere and they don't have one specific weakness outside of a bit of a depth issue, which not having McCullar today could expose a bit.

Still, Kansas gets its points from Big XII Player of the Year Jalen Wilson (19.8 points, 8.4 boards, 2.2 assists), supplemented by superstar freshman sniper Gradey Dick, (14.4 points, 4.8 rebounds) Big XII Most Improved Player KJ Adams (10.6 points, 4.4 rebounds), the aforementioned, best-defender-in-the-conference Kevin McCullar (10.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists), and elite point guard DaJuan Harris (8.8 points, 6.3 assists).

As a team, they averaged 75.7 points per game on the season, and gave up 68, which is entirely impressive when taking into account that they have played 23 quad-one games, of which they won 17. No matter what happens tonight, Kansas is locked in for a 1-seed. Should they win, they will probably be the no. 1 overall seed, if they aren't there already.

Neither team has much to play for in terms of seeding or rank in the national tournament, but it doesn't matter. Today is going to be a game about pride. Make no mistake: Texas and Kansas aren't thinking about anything other than hoisting the Big XII trophy. The fact that there aren't seeding implications on the line couldn't matter less to these two squads, who are going to be at each other's throats from opening tip.

The Jayhawks are a perfect example of a Bill Self team in that they're incredibly well-rounded on both sides of the ball. They run effective offense through Harris and Wilson mostly, and are just outside the top 10 nationally in assists per game at 16.8, much of which is due to DaJuan Harris' maestro abilities at the point guard spot.

Harris is a guy with a very high basketball IQ, and is fantastic at making reads out of the PNR. He trails just Markquis Nowell in conference assists per game, and also can make an opponent pay if they leave him alone from deep, as he shoots 41.2% on two attempts per game.

Texas is going to have to stay on top of KU's two shooters, Harris and Dick. They can't let the Jayhawks get hot from three, or they will likely lose this game. They also need Dylan Disu, Dillon Mitchell, Brock Cunningham, and Christian Bishop to play the best defense they have all year against arguably the best player they have seen (or maybe will see) all season in Wilson.

Somebody call Miley Cyrus, because Jalen Wilson is coming in like a wrecking ball.

Kansas Weaknesses. 

Despite their high assist numbers, Kansas isn't the best at taking care of the ball, averaging 12.4 turnovers per game, which ranks them 209th in the nation. Luckily for the Longhorns, forcing turnovers is kind of a specialty. Texas forces an average of about 16 turnovers per game; this ranks them 18th in the country in this category.

Marcus Carr has been extremely underrated defensively this year; he was excellent in his game yesterday despite his shooting struggles. He had five steals by himself against TCU, a couple of which were in crucial moments, including the intercepted pass on the TCU fast break that could have gotten the Horned Frogs within two points late in the second half.

That has to be the focus for this team; they need to be active as hell, getting hands in passing lanes, deflecting skip passes, and denying feeds into the post for Jalen Wilson. Once Wilson has the ball in position, it's over, especially for a relatively undersized front court.

Though Wilson still got his points in the last game, face-guarding Gradey Dick was pretty effective, as they limited him to six total points on 2/5 from the field. Basically, they guarded Dick the same way Ramey guarded Ochai Agbaji last year, just constantly harassing him and not letting him get his hands on the ball.

If the Longhorns can get a repeat performance on the defensive end, I like their chances of becoming the Big XII Tournament Champs.


Prediction. 

My jinx game has been strong lately, and I'm aware of the vast control and influence I wield in my pre-game articles about Texas basketball. With great power goes great responsibility, so I think Kanas (wink wink) will win the game today (wink wink).

Seriously though, I can't influence the game at all despite what you may think about how important I am. I'm picking the Longhorns to take the Big XII Title this year and give themselves an ever-so-slight shot at a 1-seed if a few dominoes fall their way. Texas is going into the tournament on absolute fire with a Big XII Title and a likely 2-seed, ready to go and take a deep tournament run for the first time since 2008.

Score: Texas 77, Kansas 72

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