The rest of my top 25:
25. St. Bonaventure
24. UConn
23. UVA
22. Maryland
21. Indiana
20. Texas Tech
19. Ohio State
18. Tennessee
17. Oregon
16. Houston
15. UNC
14. Memphis
13. Alabama
12. Arkansas
11. Illinois
10. Kentucky
9. Baylor
8. Duke
7. Purdue
6. Villanova
5. UCLA Bruins
UCLA lost one of the most heartbreaking possible Final Four games of all time - maybe the most heartbreaking - on a near half-court buzzer beater in OT by top-five overall pick Jalen Suggs of Gonzaga. It was one of the most epic games in the history of the sport, and is the reason people love college basketball.
So why is a former 11-seed that barely won their tournament games so high on my list? Well, they return almost everybody from last year - literally, five of their top six scorers are coming back, and they also add five-star SF Peyton Watson (national: 12, position: three). The most notable returner is preseason All-American G Johnny Juzang (16 PPG, 4.1 RPG), who lit the tournament ablaze last season, averaging 22.8 points over those six games. Additionally, all-Pac-12 G Tyger Campbell (10.4 PPG, 5.4 APG), G Jaime Jaquez (12.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG), F Cody Reilly (10 PPG, 5.4 RPG), and G Jules Bernard (10.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG) all return.
Their only major losses were G Chris Smith (12.6 PPG, 6 RPG) and F Jalen Hill (6.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG).
Another question you may be asking - why are they not higher if everyone else has them in their top two or three?
My main issue with UCLA is that they lack inside presence for the most part, outside of Rutgers transfer F Myles Johnson (8 PPG, 8.5 RPG). They also only have one table-setting G in Campbell, as the rest of the G are scoring types. It’s a crowded back court, and it will be difficult to put together lineups that compliment each other. The primary reason I even have them in my top five is that I believe that the Pac-12, outside of UCLA and Oregon, is not that strong, and that the Bruins will have a relatively easy time navigating the conference waters.
Still, there’s enough talent on this roster to make a run in March, and I fully expect them to be a one-seed come tournament time.
4. Texas Longhorns
Ah yes, the team you’ve all been waiting for. Texas had a bitter ending to their last season with head coach Shaka Smart, but we don’t need to delve into that. Everyone remembers (or, more likely - everyone blanked it from their memory).
With that loss came the opportunity of a lifetime for both UT and its new HC, Chris Beard, who Texas swooped in and stole from cross-state rival Texas Tech. While with the Red Raiders, he was able to get them to the Elite Eight in 2017-2018, and to the national championship game in 2018-2019, where they suffered a narrow loss in OT to Virginia. He was awarded AP Coach of the Year in that season.
Texas lost a lot in the offseason, including a trio of front court players to the NBA in F Kai Jones (8.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG), F Greg Brown (9.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG), and C Jericho Sims (9.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG), as well as losing G Matt Coleman (13.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 4 APG).
What Coach Beard was able to do in the transfer portal was absolute magic, however. He brought in seven transfers, three of whom were all conference on their old teams, and one of whom would have been had he not gotten injured. The three all-conference players are Minnesota G transfer Marcus Carr (19.4 PPG, 4 RPG, 4.9 APG), UMass transfer F/C Tre Mitchell (18.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.5 BPG), and Utah transfer F Timmy Allen (17.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 3.9 APG). The player who would have likely been all-conference is Vanderbilt transfer Dylan Disu (15 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.2 BPG). There are three other transfers on the team as well in Creighton transfer F/C Christian Bishop (11 PPG, 6.4 RPG), Kentucky transfer G Devin Askew (6.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.9 APG), and Texas Tech transfer G Avery Benson (1.3 PPG). This doesn’t include the returners, either.
G Andrew Jones (14.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.3 APG). G Courtney Ramey (12.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.9 APG), and G Jase Febres (5.2 PPG) come back from last year’s team, as well as energy guy F Brock Cunningham (1.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG). They also bring in highly touted freshman F Jaylon Tyson.
This team is loaded, though they are missing a stopper at the rim, some sort of Jericho-Sims-type player. Dylan Disu can handle some of those responsibilities, but his injury has him questionable to start the season, and will probably not see the floor until December. This team may take a month or so to gel, but when they are at their peak, they will be a formidable opponent.
3. Michigan Wolverines
Michigan this year is one of my favorites to win the national title, as they not only bring back a ton of talent, but had great fortune in both the transfer portal and in recruiting.
The most notable returner is C Hunter Dickinson (14.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.4 BPG), a borderline All-American who helped lead the Wolverines to the Elite Eight and nearly the Final Four after suffering a two-point loss to UCLA. They also return G Eli Brooks (9.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.1 APG), and bring in a high-level transfer in former Sun Belt POTY, G DeVante Jones (19.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.9 APG, 2.8 SPG) of Coastal Carolina. The New Orleans native Jones used his graduate transfer year to join the Wolverines and help them gear up for a national title run. A high-level defender, Jones was fourth in the nation last season in total steals with 73, and led the Sun Belt conference in this statistic. He will start at G for the Wolverines this year, and be their primary offensive weapon from a passing standpoint (Dickinson will probably still lead the team in scoring, as Jones was forced to score a lot for the Chanticleers last season - think Marcus Carr and his role at Minnesota).
As well as they did with returners and transfers, Michigan absolutely cleaned up in recruiting this year: they signed five-star Caleb Houstan from Montverde, who was Rivals’ top player at SF this season, and five-star Moussa Diabate of IMG Academy, who was top-five as a PF. Both of these guys may start this year on a team that will compete on the biggest stage. This doesn’t even include a trio of four-stars as well in PG Frankie Collins (national: 52, position: nine), SG Kobe Bufkin (national: 52, position: 12), and SG Isaiah Barnes (national: 105, position: 28). With them, they fill out a roster that would have been a tad bit thin on depth. With this elite crop of prep talent, that is no longer a concern.
Last season, the Maize and Blue went a blazing 23-5 and arguably more impressive 14-3 in conference in the elite Big 10. And though they lose star G/F Franz Wagner (12.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3 APG), who was drafted eighth overall to the Orlando Magic, and second-leading scorer F Isiah Livers (13.1 PPG, 6 RPG, 2 APG), who was drafted 42nd overall to the Detroit Pistons, they have more than enough talent to make up for it. Despite all of their starpower, the real reason they succeeded so much in conference especially was their defense, as they finished first in the Big 10 in opponents’ PPG at 64, while scoring the fourth-highest PPG at 74.6. Offensively, they finished second in conference in three-point percentage at 39.7%, and were first in allowed three-point FG per game at just 5.8. Being able to do these things well is a winning combination, as proven by their regular-season and postseason success.
Look for Michigan to be in the thick of it for a Final Four bid.
2. Kansas Jayhawks
As Texas fans, you’re probably thinking, “This is one of the best Texas rosters of the last 20 years, surely they’ll be the favorite in the Big 12 this season, right?”
Well, I hate to break it to you, but Kansas looks to be the best team in the conference once again. They return a number of high-level producers in addition to crushing it in the transfer portal. Their notable returners are preseason All-Big-12 candidates G Ochai Agbaji (14.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG) and F David McCormack (13.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG), as well as F Jalen Wilson (11.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2 APG) and G Christian Braun (9.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.9 APG). They lost only one player off of last year’s roster, G Marcus Garrett (11 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.7 APG), to the NBA, who signed a two-way deal as an UDFA with the Miami Heat.
The Big 12 had arguably the best luck as a whole with procuring transfer talent, and Kansas is no exception. Prized Arizona State transfer G Remy Martin (19.1 PPG, 3.7 APG) headlines the class, but don’t forget about Drake transfer G Joseph Yesufu (12.8 PPG), Iowa State transfer G Jalen Coleman-Lands (14.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG) and Missouri Southern State D-II transfer F Cam Martin (25 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 3.3 APG).
They also brought in three four-stars in G Kyle Cuffe Jr. (national: 109), F KJ Adams (national: 93), and F Zach Clemence (national: 49). However, this roster is so loaded these guys may not see the court much in their freshman years. The starting lineup will probably be Martin, Yesufu and Agbaji at G, and Wilson and McCormack at F/C. Braun and Coleman-Lands will be getting a lot of minutes as well.
Though they were not transcendent by KU standards last season, they still finished second in the Big 12 (behind juggernaut Baylor) and 12th in the final AP Poll. USC beat them down in the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year behind the talents of Evan Mobley.
This year, Kansas has a very good shot of taking home the national title.
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs
No surprises here. Gonzaga is the bonafide favorite to win the national championship this year after coming up short in the title game last season.
Despite losing an absurd amount of talent off of the roster in top-five pick G Jalen Suggs (14.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.5 APG), top-15 pick F Corey Kispert (18.6 PPG, 5 RPG, 1.8 APG), and G Joel Ayayi (12 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 2.7 APG), they simply reloaded by bringing in arguably the top HS player in the country in 7’1 F/C Chet Holmgren, Iowa State transfer G Rasir Bolton (15.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.9 APG), and top-40 recruit G Hunter Sallis. On top of the newcomers, they bring back their top scorer from last season, 6’10 F Drew Timme (19 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.7 APG). The Zags also return F Anton Watson (7.1 PPG, 3.5 RPG).
The Bulldogs will be a major mismatch against anyone because of their size inside. Very few teams, if any, will be able to physically guard Holmgren and Timme. Drew Timme is extremely skilled, and what’s scarier is Holmgren can shoot the lights out - he isn’t a traditional back-to-the-basket big by trade. Holmgren is a smooth athlete that can run the floor and shoot from deep. His slight frame prevents him from being a bruiser down low, but his sheer height makes him an excellent rebounder on both ends of the floor, scoring often on put-backs and offensive rebounds.
Do not be surprised if the Zags end up going undefeated in conference play again, though this year, they play a downright brutal non-conference schedule, playing the likes of (using my rankings) no. 5 UCLA, no. 4 Texas, no. 8 Duke, no. 13 Alabama, and no. 20 Texas Tech. That is running the gauntlet, and props to them for challenging themselves so early in the season.
They may take a couple of losses early in the year, but by the time March rolls around, they will be a one-seed - book it. This year, for Gonzaga, it’s national championship or bust.
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@KeenanWomack_OB