Happy to welcome a new column sponsor, The Timothy Center. The father-son duo of Doctors Jimmy and Josh Myers, both big Longhorn fans, are doing some great counseling work in the Austin area, especially during such a trying time mentally for many as we all are dealing with a global pandemic.
Drs. Jimmy & Josh Myers are the father/son owners of The Timothy Center here in Austin. Both are rabid UT fans, and both could use counseling themselves due to all the stress that this love of the Horns has generated.
The Timothy Center is unique in that it is the only Christian counseling facility in the Austin area that provides one-on-one counseling, couples therapy, an Intensive Outpatient programs for those teens and adults needing more concentrated help, medication management services, and one of the largest sexual addiction treatment programs in the central Texas area.
Another aspect of the Timothy Center is that all of these services are covered by most major insurance policies. Faith-based counseling, faith-based medication management, all covered by insurance is as rare in this area as an undefeated season by…well, you get the idea.
We have offices in south Austin, north near the outlet mall between Round Rock and Georgetown, and our main office about a mile north of the Arboretum on Jollyville Rd. Of course, right now, with the pandemic still raging, all of our adult services can be accessed in an online format.
If you should ever need our services, just give us a call at our main number 512-331-2700 or check out our website at www.timothycenter.com.
Alright, the writing…
1) How close are the Longhorns?
The Longhorns are close. They might be closer than you think.
Say what you want about Tom Herman, but he left Texas in undoubtedly better shape than he found it. Texas finished No. 14 in F/+, an overall ranking metric at FootballOutsiders.com that averages a team’s FEI and S&P+ rankings. Since 2009, that is the Longhorns’ highest finish; the previous best was No. 19 in 2012. Dare I say... the cake is baked!?! In all seriousness, the phrase doesn't fit perfectly because of the recent recruiting issues, but it's not at all unreasonable.
In some ways, the best finish since 2009 illustrates a couple of the main reasons why Texas made a change – not being able to get over the hump consistently by beating inferior opponents and playing in so many one-score games; recruiting wasn’t going to be able to support similar finishes in the future. Regardless, Texas is positioned to take the next big step, and you don’t need a telescope to see it.
When Herman arrived at Texas, he inherited a program that finished No. 49 in F/+ the previous season. After a slight bump in 2017, Herman finished No. 25, No. 22 and then No. 14. We can poke holes in the roster, and we all understand 2020 and 2021 recruiting have pulled down the overall talent in the program. But Steve Sarkisian isn’t asked to revive a blueblood on life support.
Texas is close. In fact, it’s closer – much, much closer in some instances – than many programs were recently when big-name coaches took them over. Take a look:
2) A look at some data...
Coaches are listed with the F/+ ranking of their program the year before they took over and the following season. I only included head coaches who were not at their respective programs in a different role before taking over, which eliminates coaches like Mario Cristobal, Ed Orgeron, Jimbo Fisher at Florida State, Ryan Day, Clay Helton, Manny Diaz, Lincoln Riley, etc. Plus, I wanted to include programs that were at least kind of similar to Texas.
Chris Petersen (Washington)
Before: No. 18
After: No. 58
Paul Chryst (Wisconsin)
Before: No. 25
After: No. 32
Kirby Smart (Georgia)
Before: No. 30
After: No. 59
Jim Harbaugh (Michigan)
Before: No. 54
After: No. 8
Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M)
Before: No. 59
After: No. 17
Justin Fuente (Virginia Tech)
Before: No. 59
After: No. 18
James Franklin (Penn State)
Before: No. 61
After: No. 45
Chip Kelly (UCLA)
Before: No. 73
After: No. 86
Dan Mullen (Florida)
Before: No. 85
After: No. 11
Mack Brown (North Carolina)
Before: No. 92
After: No. 32
Scott Frost (Nebraska)
Before: No. 101
After: No. 53
No situation is the same. For example, Smart played in the CFP final in year two and Kelly’s UCLA program made major strides this past season. But it gives you an idea of the situation other programs were in when new head coaches took over. This upcoming season, Bryan Harsin will take over Auburn (No. 33 in 2020) and Josh Heupel is the new man at Tennessee (No. 79). You could make the case Harsin inherits a more talented roster, although he’s dealt with some significant transfer departures. But you can’t, at least according to the data, argue Auburn was a better team than Texas in 2020.
3) What does it mean?
So, the last time a head coach inherited a team with as high of a F/+ finish as UT’s last season happened when Chris Petersen followed Steve Sarkisian at Washington. How about that? Anyway, I don’t think you should look at the data and immediately expect a CFP appearance in Sarkisian's first year. As mentioned, the Texas roster doesn’t lack talent, but it’s also far behind programs like Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and maybe even Oklahoma after its transfer additions.
However, my main takeaway continues to be Sarkisian didn’t inherit a total teardown or even a true rebuild...
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