The No. 11 Texas Longhorns are 6-1 to begin the 2020-21 college basketball season, undoubtedly the most unusual hoops season of my lifetime. Perhaps the Longhorns’ biggest accomplishment to date is consistently practicing for months and regularly testing negative for COVID-19. Okay, winning the Maui Invitational held in Asheville, North Carolina was quite an accomplishment too.
In all seriousness, the Longhorns have, basically, played one-fourth of their regular season and begin Big 12 play Sunday afternoon against Oklahoma State (6-1). Around this same point last season Texas went to Providence and was bullied and embarrassed by a much tougher, and physical team. The starting lineup consisted of Matt Coleman, Courtney Ramey, Jase Febres, Gerald Liddell and Jericho Sims. Obviously, things have changed since, and this team is different than the 2019-20 roller coaster.
That said, it was during this point last season when we saw enough game action and had enough statistical data to project what things could look like moving forward. Interestingly, after the Providence game Texas ranked No. 61 at KenPom.com. And that’s also exactly where it finished.
Currently, the Longhorns rank No. 6 and are holding steady at No. 3 at BartTorvik.com. The seven-game sample size of 2020-21 is smaller than last season’s 11-game reference point; so, it includes a little more projection baked in. Unlike KenPom.com, BartTorvik.com assigns each game a game score; basically, each individual game’s efficiency is multiplied by 100 to deliver its own individual game Pythagorean expectancy (what the overall rankings are based off).
Take the Texas vs. North Carolina game for example: The Longhorns finished with a game score of 93 meaning they performed against the opponent like Virginia – currently .9306 in Barthag and No. 7 overall – would be expected to perform. With that in mind, here are UT’s game scores for 2019-20 through the Providence game:
As you can see, Texas was very inconsistent to begin last season, and had some close calls and poor performances against inferior teams; the first 11 games were essentially split between good or great performances and average or bad performances. And holy crap… the performance against Providence would be what the No. 318 in the country would be expected to do. Gross. Now, let’s take a look at 2020-21 to date:
Again, we’re working with a smaller sample, but you’ll notice much better consistency. The worst Texas performed, in theory, was like a top 50-like team would be expected to perform against Villanova and Davidson. Texas has four top 10 game scores, five top 25 and nothing outside the top 50. It hasn’t always looked the same visually, but Texas has been fairly consistent in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency with the latter being the better performer thus far.
What does it mean? The Longhorns haven’t endured wild swings in performance this season, which is unlike the previous year. It makes sense for a couple reasons: first, the Longhorns are more experienced; second, the Texas program seems to know player roles and expected rotation already. If you want to believe this season will be dramatically different and want to believe in the computer rankings, that second reason is the biggest factor to hold tightly.
--- Matt Coleman and Courtney Ramey are the leaders, and we’re seeing and hearing their impact more. The team is going to go as the guards go.
--- Andrew Jones is the team’s best scorer when he’s right, and he hasn’t been completely right yet. But everyone understands his role and what he’s capable of.
--- Greg Brown is showing more signs of being an impact one-and-done four, and despite his offensive adjustment period, he ranks as one of the best defensive rebounders in the country.
--- Kai Jones has an 80.7 true shooting percentage and the only reason he doesn’t play more minutes is foul trouble.
--- Jericho Sims is showing signs of being, well, being Jericho Sims, but Texas knows he’s not often going to be a focal point of the offense.
--- Brock Cunningham and Royce Hamm know they’re glue guys and true role players while Donovan Williams and Gerald Liddell are battling for that final rotation spot.
I think this – already having a good feel for roles and the rotation – is a big deal. Simply, players are better able to achieve consistency if they understand each given night what their role is expected to be. If we assume individual players like Brown and Sims will perform better and Jones will shoot closer to his career 35.4 three-point percentage than his current 21.9%, the consistency could improve. What’s also promising for the Longhorns is we’re seeing improvement in some emphasis areas.
Texas is doing a better job of throwing the ball up the floor and pursuing transition opportunities while also playing with more pace in the half-court. Currently, Texas’ 16.5 second average offensive possession length ranks 122nd quickest nationally, which is easily the fastest mark of the Shaka Smart era. The increase in transition chances has helped Texas to a 52.1 effective field goal percentage, another best for Smart at Texas and just .1 behind his career-best output.
Overall, the Longhorns are a much better offensive rebounding team. They’ve grabbed 32.8% of their chances, which ranks 61st nationally. Digging deeper, that presence didn’t show up against either North Carolina or Villanova. Texas still must prove they can compete on the offensive glass consistently, but there is some promising evidence. A similar argument and description can be made for the offense’s free throw rate.
Although they’re fouling – and some of this is in the form of offensive rebounding and charges - entirely too much, the Longhorns have performed like a top five defense in six of seven games this season. They communicate well around the perimeter, and after a poor one-on-one defensive performance against Davidson, they’ve responded very well in that area. Texas wants its identity to be defense and aggressiveness, and so far, the defense looks more than capable.
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There are warning signs, though. Last year’s warning signs were like the scene in Christmas Vacation when Clark Griswold’s lights finally work and they blind the next door neighbors so badly they unintentionally destroy their house. This year’s warning signs are more like that Christmas toy you purchased your children that makes weird noises from the closet in the middle of the night; you know what it is, but it still manages to frighten you occasionally.
Offensively, the Longhorns are who they are. They’re going to put the decision-making and freedom in guards’ hands and leave a majority of the actions and structure of the offense up to the players around the perimeter. The philosophy will always bug me because it would greatly benefit Texas if it could lean on some actual half-court structure – like Smart’s offense year one at Texas - more often when it goes into scoring droughts like it did Wednesday night. And I know it’s capable of doing that because I saw it that night.
The Longhorns are also firing up three-pointers at a similar rate to last season, although if Jones shoots closer to his career-average, it’s not unreasonable to suggest Texas could best its 33.6% from three-point range during 2019-20 Big 12 games. Still, there have been stretches this season when the Longhorns shot early-clock three-pointers that weren’t great looks instead of trying to work the ball side-to-side and inside-and-out. We’re all just going to have to live with that because I don’t envision it changing, at least not this season. And Texas is going to have to live with the consequences.
Smart’s bet is on the experience and playmaking of his guards showing when it matters most late in games as he pumps them with consistent confidence and freedom. If Texas can consistently capitalize in transition and get to the free throw line more, it could work enough to win a lot of games. If it doesn’t, the margin of the error for a great defense will be slim and many league games will simply come down to whose guards are better late. Fortunately for Texas, its guard group this season is capable of often being the better group late.
In the end, that’s almost a simple way to summarize college basketball. Which team has the better guards during winning time, and which team makes fewer mistakes? Through mid-December, the 2020-21 Longhorns are playing with better consistency and have displayed more evidence they could be a very good team.
Just understand that while the warning signs aren’t as obvious and concerning as previous seasons, they’re still lingering, and 2021’s schedule includes at least seven games versus KenPom.com top 10 teams and 13 against teams inside the top 59. That stretch begins tomorrow against Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State. It sure would help the Longhorns if they don’t attempt more threes than twos and shoot 5-of-29 from three-point range like the last time these two programs met.
