Just a Bit Outside - College World Series Preview & Quinn Ewers 4 Heisman?

Peyton Manning said it best…

For UT, Omaha isn’t just a destination, it’s a home away from home.

I don’t know if you guys have heard this before, but Texas has been to Omaha more times (38) than any other team in college baseball. Coincidentally, did y’all also know that Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley’s fathers were roommates in college?

But just getting to Omaha isn't enough for this team.

“The job’s not done,” said Tristan Stevens after pitching six magnificent innings in the deciding game of last weekend’s Super Regional. “We don’t go to Omaha, we want to win. That’s our plan, that’s our goal.”

Texas’s road to Omaha has been a bumpy one.

First, the team lost Saturday starter Tanner Witt to a season=long injury. That forced Stevens to try to replace him in the rotation, but he struggled and was eventually replaced by Lucas Gordon (who has pitched phenomenally). Stevens was relegated to the bullpen where he, and nearly everybody else working out of the pen, have struggled.

“Throughout the season, we’ve had a 10 spot put on us, we’ve had an eight spot put on us, but we just never gave in,” said head Coach David Pierce who was praising his teams resiliency after Texas rallied from a 7-2 deficit to beat East Carolina on Saturday. “I’ll always remember this team because of that.”

The Horns had a miserable March, going 11-8, including losses to Texas State, College of Charleston and arch-rival Texas A&M (who we will discuss later). But the real lowlight came when they were swept at home by Oklahoma State at the end of April.

Since then, the Horns have gone 16-4 and put themselves back in Omaha with a chance to win it all.

But to win it all, they’ll have to go through one of the hottest teams in baseball as well as rivals who would probably rather see UT to go 2-and-Que than have their own team win it all.

“This team is so built for anything that’s thrown at us,” said Stevens. “We’ve known it since the start of the season with all of the adversity that we faced.”

Here’s a look at the teams on Texas’s side of the bracket. You may have heard of these guys before.

MY THOUGHTS: I look at Texas’s side of the bracket and I can’t help but think they are the best team on that side. They have the best hitting, the second best pitching, and the best defense. Not to mention, Texas righted the ship and got rolling at the right time of year. I like the head space this team is in, even though it had to fight from behind to win at East Carolina. I toyed with the idea of picking Lucas Gordon as the best pitcher because he has looked so good, but Hansen still has the best stuff and I think he will shine in Omaha. Despite all of that, I just can’t shake the concern that the bullpen is going to do this team in. It has been the Achilles heel all season. That being said, you have to like what you saw from Tristan Stevens on Sunday and Andre Duplantier on Saturday. And the Horns’ bullpen did pretty well in the regional – even having a full bullpen game to shut down Air Force in the Sunday outing. So while I like Texas’s chances of making it to the championship series, I don’t love them.

MY THOUGHTS: Notre Dame had to win on the road for both the regionals and super regionals to make it to Omaha. It is a veteran squad that will fight to the end. As I’ve said, if the Irish are going to win, they’re going to have to do it with pitching and defense. But then again, pitching and defense is exactly the combination you need to succeed in Omaha.

MY THOUGHTS: OU was 18-12 after losing a series to Oklahoma State in April. Since then, all they’ve done is won the Big XII Conference tournament (beating UT for the title), and gone on the road to win their regional and super regional. Oklahoma has gotten hot at the right time and that can carry a team a long way. They are the second best hitting team in Texas’ side of the bracket and their arms are not bad. They will be a tough out.

MY THOUGHTS: Despite dodging some teams to bolster their RPI, I’m not sure that A&M wouldn’t be the No. 1 seed if they re-seeded for the College World Series. This is a gritty team but I’m not sure it’s a dominant team. In fact, I’ve maintained that despite being behind the Aggies in the rankings and seedings, Texas is the better team. Statistically, the Aggies just don’t do anything great. I don’t love their hitting (outside of Dylan Rock – who beat up on midweek pitching against UT). I don’t love their pitching. The only thing going for them is they do scrap and fight. They were tops in the SEC West, which is a pretty good accomplishment considering there are four teams from that division in the CWS. However, A&M made it to Omaha with a relatively weak regional and super regional.

Up first for Texas is the red-hot Notre Dame team. The Golden Domers (which works for football helmets but is a little unsettling with baseball helmets) come into Omaha fresh off a Super Regional win over the No. 1 seeded team, Tennessee.

One of the biggest questions facing Notre Dame is if the moment may be too much for them. This is only their third time ever competing in Omaha, and the first time back in 20 years. But head coach Link Jarrett’s not concerned.

“There’s no team that I’ve ever coached that’s more built for this moment than these guys,” said Jarrett after winning game three of the Super Regional Series in Knoxville. “The versatility of the team, the unselfishness of the pitching staff, the way they engage in anything they feel like might need to be done to win a game, I’ve never seen anything like it.”

Like a boxer who wants to work the body of his opponent, Notre Dame wants to keep things as close as they can as long as they can.

“You can take a few jabs, but you can’t allow the knockout blow,” said Coach Jarrett. “Three to one is ok, eight to one is tough.”

Notre Dame relied on small ball offense to beat Tennessee on the road.

“The bunting game came into play,” said Jarrett. “They weren’t perfect bunts but they kept things going.”

And the Irish pride themselves on defense. They sport a .980 fielding percentage which is good for 13th best in the country.

Coach Jarrett said he emphasizes defense all year.

“We work so hard on double-play stuff because it really accentuates all different parts of what you have to do in the infield,” he said.

That kind of gameplan will work well at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha. The ballpark plays big, limiting teams that rely solely on power.

Texas is definitely a big hitting team - having demolished their season record for home runs with 128 on the season – including 32 by first baseman Ivan Melendez.

And it's not just El Gato Grande bashing the ball. Texas has seven players with double digit dingers.

“One through nine, we’re tough outs,” said Melendez, trying to deflect attention away from himself to his teammates.

But this team is fully capable of playing small ball itself. The Longhorns are hitting .318 as a team and they are not afraid to lay down bunts, sacrifice runners or try to steal a bag or two. Eric Kennedy may be really critical in Omaha.

And as good as Notre Dame’s defense is, Texas’s is better. The Horns sport a .986 fielding percentage which is the best in the country.

Texas’s biggest key to winning game one is Pete Hansen. The lefty is 11-2 on the season with a 3.40 ERA.

Hansen has been nails all season long, but did get shelled in Greenville last Friday giving up a couple of homers while picking up the loss.

Omaha’s deep dimensions (335 down the lines, 375 in the alleys, and 408 to Center Field) should allow Hansen to pitch his game without worrying about giving up the big one.

If Hansen can go deep into the game without having to turn the ball over to the bullpen too early, and Texas can deliver the knockout on offense that Link Jarrett is worried about, then Texas should win. However, if it becomes a bullpen game and it’s close late, then all bets are off.

Texas hasn’t produced a Heisman winner since Ricky Williams stiff-armed his way to the trophy in 1998. Could a current Texas running back break that streak?

During a recent trip to Las Vegas, I noticed two Texas Longhorns were on the board with Heisman trophy odds. Naturally, Bijan Robinson, widely considered to be the best running back in college football, is one of the favorites with 15/1 odds. Surprisingly, Quinn Ewers was also on the board with 40/1 odds.

I was curious about what Las Vegas really thought about their chances so I called up Chris Andrews, the director of the sportsbook for South Point Casino.

I should note here, Andrews says he does not lay odds on awards such as the Heisman because they are not actual sporting contests. So these odds are not his, but he had some opinions to share anyway.

"Playing for Texas, Texas can get a lot of national publicity, it's a very strong brand,” said Andrews.

I first asked him about Robinson’s odds, since his skillset is known. Surprisingly, Andrews was not very high on Bijan’s chances to win the Heisman.

"It's hard for a running back right now,” explained Andrews. “The way the game is right now, it’s so tilted towards quarterbacks. Some quarterback is going to put up massive numbers this year and they’ll probably win it. That’s just my hunch.”

Since the turn of the century, only four non-quarterbacks have hoisted the Heisman; DeVonta Smith (WR) in 2021, Derrick Henry (RB) in 2015, Mark Ingram (RB) in 2009, and Reggie Bush (RB) in 2005. Bush’s win was later vacated.

What do all of those non-QB winners have in common? They all played at Alabama. (Again, Bush’s win was vacated … and it should have gone to Vince Young anyway.)

Of course that led me to asking about Quinn Ewers’ chances.

"With the Texas brand, and obviously this kid is very, very good, I think he's the kind of guy who could come out of nowhere and post some huge numbers,” said Andrews. "He'd have to have a huge year but that's possible because he's very, very talented and playing for a school with a huge brand like Texas."

When I asked Andrews who he personally would rather put $10 on to win the Heisman, he said it would be Ewers … just because he’s a quarterback.

On the Alabama game: "I opened them as a 12 point underdog to Alabama,” which Andrews thought showed real respect for Texas, but the gamblers weren’t having it. “They've been bet up to 16 so the money came in against Texas."

On where Texas ranks in the Big XII: "I would definitely have them behind Oklahoma,” Andrews said ranking them second in the conference – but just barely. “I would probably have them about equal with Ok State."

On where Texas ranks if it were in the SEC this year: "Oh geez. That's really hard to say right now. Probably about where like Florida is, which is probably the upper half of the SEC. Bama's going to be the big dog for a while until Saban retires. A&M is going to be good too. That's going to be a recruiting challenge for Texas. Probably right around where LSU is right now."

For the record, South Point currently has Texas, LSU and Florida all at 60-1 odds to win the national championship.

Finally, I can’t help but end this story sending out good vibes for Arch Manning as he prepares for his official visit in Austin this weekend. Here’s to safe travels and a good time for Arch … and all of you who may be getting ready to head to Omaha or anywhere else this weekend.