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Ketch's 10 Thoughts From The Weekend (If I was Tom Herman ...)

Let's just pause for a moment, take a deep breath and take stock of what exists in front of us all for the immediate future.

Depending on when you read this, the Longhorns could be five or six days away from the following set of circumstances.

a. Texas beats Iowa State and Tom Herman is two wins away from posting the best Texas regular season since 2009 and will have the Longhorns into the Big 12 Championship game for the second time in three seasons, which equals the same number the Texas program had achieved from 2002-2017.

b. Texas loses to Iowa State, cementing a second consecutive disappointing regular season, thus opening the door for the program to make the change that so many people behind the scenes connected to the program are desperate to make.

For weeks, I've listened to Texas fans say that big decisions like the one facing the Texas administration with regards to its football program should never come down to a game or two, but the reality is that the margins are often really fine. A fascinating set of extreme narratives can arrive out of the ashes of whatever happens on Friday, both of which are indisputably true.

Once upon a time, I wondered if the Longhorns would have the guts and the money to pull the plug on Herman if he disappointed in 2020 as much as he did in 2019, but those concerns have mostly disappeared because enough alums are ready to do whatever it takes to change things up and Herman has a boss that could once again become the most popular seven-figure earner on campus if he's part of a movement that secures the hire of Urban Meyer.

Also, contrary to Herman's public protesting about the topic last Monday, Chris Del Conte's absolute silence on his No. 1 product outside of when he's linking to his weekly newsletter is emphatically loud inside of its extreme quiet

If Texas loses on Friday, it's a wrap for Herman. At that point, the Longhorns will be making change for a lot of reasons, the least of which won't be with an eye on recruiting, including the early signing period, which is currently 22 days away. Ready or not, here it comes.

On the other hand, if Texas wins on Friday, the Longhorns will be on a four-game winning streak and two very winnable games away from the conference title game. If the Longhorns win these final three games, the first signing period will occur between the end of the Kansas game and the start of the Big 12 Championship game.

While there's been a lot of dispute about whether Herman's job would be safe pending whatever result emerges from the Big 12 Championship game, there's no getting around the fact that making it to the Big 2 Championship game ...

a. Extends the conversation of an uncertain future from 5-6 days to nearly a month.b. Would create a potentially sticky situation with the kids in the 2021 recruiting class, the majority of which will sign letters of intent in the days leading up to the Big 12 Championship game.c. Would follow a six-game winning streak and the best regular-season win percentage posted in more than a decade.

I've had a number of people ask me if Herman has any friends left on his side and my answer has become universally the same ... yes, himself. Almost no big money donor in the world is worth as much as a long win streak and time. As long as Herman is inside the bubble of a win streak, his ability to thread the needle on the exact scenario that could secure his return in 2021 remains possible.

Unlike when this program lost to Oklahoma, you get the sense that the resolve to potentially take swift action if the bubble pops exists much more clearly than a month ago.

How long can Herman walk the high-wire? Can Iowa State potentially represent the same type of win that the Oklahoma game in Norman represented for Shaka Smart earlier in the year? Will Urban Meyer's name be trending on Twitter in Austin by 3 p.m. on Friday?

Whatever happens, narratives are on the line, both soaked and bathed in 100-percent accuracy.

No. 2 - If I were Tom Herman ...

After the last couple of weeks, Herman has to know that no amount of call-out is going to bring his boss out of hiding for a comment.

READ THE REST OF KETCH'S 10 THOUGHTS FROM THE WEEKEND HERE (PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS)

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