One of the things that made Saturday night in Stillwater so intriguing is that for a program that always feels like it moves from crossroads situation to crossroads situation like a pack of roaming nomads, Saturday night was an honest-to-goodness legitimate crossroad.
If Texas had lost to Oklahoma State, I truly believe we'd be talking about the end of the Tom Herman era in Austin.
At one point last week, I asked one high-level admin about the level of heat that existed in Herman's kitchen and the answer I received indicated that a loss in Stillwater might have been a level of fire that no fire department in these parts could possibly put out.
A win in Stillwater?
Great question. Maybe more of a rhetorical one in nature that is suddenly a very real, tangible thing.
Now what?
Well, the likeliest answer is that we sit back and watch what happens next. The Longhorns are 4-2 and ranked 22nd in the country. In 20 days, they could be 6-2 and ranked closer to the top 10 than the top 20. Much like with the 2013 season and the end of the Mack Brown era, we might see the immediate future of the program come down to the final 120 minutes of football.
Ask yourself this ... what happens if Mack Brown had beaten Baylor at the end of that season and won the Big 12 championship? I can tell you what happens ... there's never a Red Banquet. Mack returns to Texas in 2014. The Charlie Strong Era never happens.
If you're a fan of change, you'll be comforted by the reality that Texas running the table might look very doable on paper, but nothing about Herman's history in Austin suggests that it can pull off a six-game undefeated run into the Big 12 Championship Game.
If you're a fan of certainty, you'll be discomforted by the reality that running the table looks very doable. Texas will likely be the Vegas favorite in every game it plays the rest of the way. That's not my opinion as much as that is what is actually likely to happen.
The reality is that if I had offered an 8-2 regular-season record with a spot in the Big 12 championship game before the season started, sight unseen, a lot of you reading this would have snapped my hand off to accept it.
That would represent undeniable progress from a 7-5 record in 2019, no matter the outcome of the pending Big 12 Championship Game.
Of course, if Oklahoma State had handled the clock just a little better in the final minute of regulation last night, the Longhorns would be unranked with three conference losses and a million miles away from the top 10.
Folks, these are the margins we are talking about.
From my perspective, the elephant in the room at the moment is the current state of recruiting. The end of this current 2021 cycle is going to likely end with a whimper and the events from last week in the 2022 class were a scary shot across the bow.
What remains unknown is what an 8-2 season would do to recruiting, specifically in the 2022 and 2023 class? Also, what would it mean for Herman to enter next season in what would essentially be another "hot seat" season? What would have to happen in the 2020 season that would keep the 2021 season from being a hot seat season? After all, John Mackovic won the last SWC title and the first Big 12 Championship in back to back seasons in 1995-96, only to essentially be out the door before the middle of September in 1997 after the loss to UCLA.
Personally, I don't know how to answer these questions. I can tell you that every head football coach that has ever coached at Texas since I've been covering the team believes that if Texas wins, recruiting will take care of itself, Herman included. Part of the reason why Herman hired so many "coach-first" assistants coming into this season was that he was more concerned with development than recruiting. Herman would tell you that if he wins, the recruiting will be excellent. Charlie Strong believed the same. Same with Mack Brown. Same with John Mackovic.
Are they all right?
I don't know, but it's within the realm of possibilities that we're about to find out.
All of that being established, it could all fall apart inside of the ashes of another 50-50 game gone sideways as soon as in five days.
Welcome to November.
No. 2 - Maybe it means nothing, maybe it means something ...
I'm not going to make any implications with the following information, but in a universe where it has been apparent for weeks that Texas head coach Tom Herman and his boss Chris Del Conte haven't exactly been on the same page, it warrants some sort of on the record acknowledgement.
READ THE REST OF KETCH'S 10 THOUGHTS FROM THE WEEKEND HERE (PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS)
