From the moment that Steve Sarkisian was hired by Texas at the beginning of January, my expectations for the 2022 recruiting class have been sky high.
For me, a top-five class straight out of the gate became the goal, especially when you consider that Charlie Strong pulled a borderline Top 10 class in 2015, while Tom Herman signed the No.4-ranked class for Rivals in 2018.
Most of those expectations centered around the fact that Sarkisian's history as a recruiter at USC included a No.1-ranked class in 2015, his staff assembled at Texas is significantly more dynamic than the one Herman brought with him to Austin and the in-state class in 2022 is as deep with high-end talent as any I've covered in 25+ years.
It's a high bar, for sure, but two of the last three newcomers at the head coaching position for the Longhorns have hit the top five metric.
With about six months to go before letters of intent start making their way across fax machines, the Longhorns sit in 10th place in the current Rivals rankings and sport a very healthy 3.75 stars per prospect, which absolutely suggests that a Top 5 class is out there for the taking if Sarkisian and Co. can close like gangbusters.
In order to get there, the Longhorns are going to have to finish with the elite of the elite prospects inside the state of Texas, of which there are more names available this year than in normal classes. Yet, as deep as the numbers go, there are only so many super blue-chip prospects available before the natural resources begin to dry up. By my count, there are roughly nine elite prospects left in the state of Texas:
Evan Stewart (WR - Frisco Liberty)
Devon Campbell (OL - Arlington Bowie)
Kelvin Banks (OL - Houston Summer Creek)
Kam Dewberry (OL - Humble Atascocita)
Omari Abor (DE - Duncanville)
Harold Perkins (LB - Cypress Park)
Denver Harris (CB - North Shore)
Bryce Anderson (DB - Beaumont Westbrook)
Brenen Thompson (Ath - Spearman)
Of the nine, the Longhorns are on the outside looking in for Dewberry, Abor and Perkins. Of those three, the Longhorns are scheduled to get Dewberry on campus this month, but in his top five, the Longhorns are probably 5th coming into the busy visit process and he just said that LSU moved into his top following the weekend, meaning the Longhorns could ... ummm ... just need to get him on campus this month and worry about positioning later.
That leaves the following six as absolutely critical to this class: Stewart, Campbell, Banks, Harris, Anderson and Thompson.
The good news is that the Longhorns are in a very good position with each of the six. In fact, I've got Futurecasts for the Longhorns in for Harris, Campbell, Anderson and should probably put one in for Thompson.
The bad news is that there's not a lot of wiggle room as things stand for this staff if it wants to finish with a nationally elite class. If we're talking about out-of-state national Top 70-level prospects (5 stars or high 4 stars) that the Longhorns are seriously involved in, the list probably includes Santa Ana (Ca.) Mater Dei wide receiver C.J. Williams and Mission Hills (Ca.) Bishop Aacdemy linebacker Niuafe Tuihalamaka.
Overall, this isn't a call for panic; it's just an acknowledgment of the reality that exists for this coaching staff in recruiting. If it can finish strongly with the six mega in-state prospects and pluck an out-of-state big-timer or two ... Then this class will generally meet very high expectations because it would include 5-7 of the state's truly elite blue-chip prospects.
There will be a lot of names over the next six months that come and go from your consciousness, but Stewart, Campbell, Banks, Harris, Anderson and Thompson will remain paramount throughout.
This program needs difference-makers, and this is the list of difference makers that Texas must close with.
No. 2 - About the weekend...
Considering I just spent the entire opening sequence of this week's column about the importance of six in-state prospects that weren't on campus this weekend, there probably needs to be a slight disclaimer ...
CLICK HERE to read the full edition of Ketch's 10 Thoughts From the Weekend.
