After a massive, top-10 win over the Kansas Jayhawks on Monday, Texas faces arguably their toughest game of the year, heading to Waco to play the Baylor Bears, who are ranked 10th.
After Kansas blew them out, 83-59, people began to unhitch their trailers from the Baylor bandwagon. I'm here to say that this is the wrong move. Baylor still ranks 26th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency in the country, even including that poor performance at Phog Allen.
Baylor comes in 2-2 in their last four, with drops to Alabama on the road and the aforementioned loss to the Jayhawks. Texas is on a hot streak, winning five of their last six, including the massive win over Kansas on Monday night.
They took down Kansas State on Tuesday night, 75-60, behind 21 on 8/9 from C Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. They were missing F LJ Cryer, who has been out for the last four games with a foot injury – he's questionable to play in the game on today. I will update this article once the news drops. Though not a starter, he may be their best player when you factor in everything he does on both sides of the floor.
Here's Baylor's starting lineup.
How Kansas beat Baylor.
When Kansas blasted Baylor last Saturday, they did it by getting into transition, taking advantage of Baylor's "blitzing" for offensive rebounds, or sending multiple guys to the hoop after every miss to try for second-chance points. They've done this successfully all season long, but once they played a team that could get up and down the floor like Kansas could, it bit them badly.
This means that for Texas to win, they're going to have to play up-tempo like they did against the Jayhawks, who they outscored in transition across the game. Running with Baylor's athletes is no small task, however.
Like Texas Tech, Baylor is highly athletic on the wings, which gave Texas fits in their matchup in Lubbock. Especially if LJ Cryer is playing, this will be an issue on the offensive end. Attacking the size Baylor has will be critical for the win today, meaning they're going to have to get Timmy Allen loose, as well as continue to feed Tre Mitchell inside, as they did Monday night.
Here's the Longhorns' starting lineup.
What Texas needs to do to win today:
• Get into transition.
I already addressed this earlier, so I'll re-emphasize. This worked wonders in their last win, and is the way that Kansas pulled off the beatdown of Baylor on Saturday. Texas needs to take advantage of Baylor's blitzing and throw it down court for some outlet passes for easy buckets.
• Get to the foul line.
Texas was 20/23 from the stripe against Kansas, and it was a major reason they won that game. When their field goals weren't dropping, they went to Mitchell in the post, who got to the line eight times in the first half, converting all eight. Texas will have a streak today of not getting shots from the field to drop. Can they get to the free throw line to mitigate the effects of this drought?
• Get more offensive boards than Baylor.
Another thing that's easier said than done, but Texas was able to get 19 more shots on goal than Kansas was. Christian Bishop out-rebounded the Jayhawks by himself on the offensive glass, 7-6. If Texas is able to out-rebound Baylor in the same fashion, they have an excellent shot of winning this game.
Still, I think Baylor athletically might be too much for Texas to overcome. A big point obviously is whether or not LJ Cryer plays, but I'm going to assume he will. Because it's Texas, and people want to play in this game.
Prediction:
Baylor 70, Texas 66
Line: Texas +6
ML: Baylor
O/U: over 130.
