After coming in from Texas Tech, the Texas basketball hype train was in full motion, but Chris Beard's first season so far has been mixed in its results. Having been picked as a top-five team preseason, the Longhorns have fallen short of that – though they have improved throughout the year, and have some big wins, Texas Tech swept them and Baylor destroyed them in their game in Waco.
The win against Kansas legitimized them, but we know where we are with this team at this point: this is not a Final Four squad. If things break right, they could be a Sweet 16 team, but this falls short of what people thought this team could be.
The team's primary issues are as follows: point guard (or lack there of), outside shooting, athleticism, and rim protection. This roster is limited, despite the preseason rankings' saying otherwise. I bought into the hype initially, assuming this team would be at the top of the Big 12; I was wrong about that, though I did note in the preseason that lacking size and a big banger down low would hurt them. They're currently fourth in the conference, which is not bad, but not where we thought they might be.
After another frustrating loss to Texas Tech on Saturday, 61-55, in which they shot a paltry 28% from the field, turned the ball over 14 times, and were out-rebounded, it was time to take an honest look at what has gone on this year, and what Chris Beard has done with this team.
The things I like:
• Building fan culture.
Having gone to Texas for undergrad, I can say from personal experience that the atmosphere has drastically improved for home games. The Kansas game was excellent, as was the Tennessee home game. However, the Texas Tech game was an abject disaster, though that's on the administration, not Chris Beard. For the most part, though, the home games have been well attended and had good energy, especially in comparison to previous seasons.
• Playing defense.
Texas basketball has had excellent defense all season long, stifling opposing offenses en route to the third-overall scoring defense in the country at just 57.7 points allowed per game. They hustle hard on this end of the floor and the results are there. Though they gave up 80 to Baylor, 77 to Texas Tech, 79 to Iowa State, 76 to Kansas (in a win), and 84 to Gonzaga, they have pretty consistently held teams in the 50s and 60s. They do this without highly athletic players or a strong rim protector, making this even more impressive.
• Recruiting.
Texas has two McDonald's All-Americans coming in next season in Arterio Morris and Dillon Mitchell, bringing some much-needed athleticism to the squad in this coming season. They also got a commitment from a four-star true point guard in Rowan Brumbaugh, who has a skillset that this current team direly needs. Depending on who comes back next year and who they get in the portal, I think 2022-2023 has the potential to be a better season.
Things I don't like:
• Offensive performance.
This team has not found consistent offense for an entire season, and it doesn't seem like something that can be fixed at this point. The lack of a true point guard is the primary problem, as they lack a table-setter that can get guys in good positions on offense. The motion offense hasn't been working to get guys open. A lack of good screening has caused problems, and the offense spends a lot of possessions dribbling around, sometimes into double teams and traps, causing several turnovers per game. It's not pretty to watch and it surely isn't effective. They're 258th in the country in scoring at just 68.4 points per game. Frankly, that will not get it done deep in the tournament.
• Production from transfers.
Obviously, we knew that these players were not going to average what they did at their former schools, but all of them are significantly down in their scoring averages. Look at this table below to see the differences.
This doesn't do a lot for the "development of talent" argument. Like I previously stated, a drop off was expected, but not to this degree.
• Rotations.
There have been complaints about rotations a lot this year, which is understandable, as some of them do not compute. We also have to be honest about one thing: against certain teams, no rotation could have won the game (i.e., Baylor, on the road against Texas Tech, Gonzaga, etc). With Tre Mitchell's absence in the balance, Beard was forced to play lineups against Texas Tech on Saturday that weren't exactly ideal; mostly, I'm referring to the Askew/Cunningham/Febres combinations. That's just not enough shot creation or shot making on the floor at any given time. Askew and Cunningham do deserve minutes, just not at the same time, if it can be helped. Whether Febres deserves minutes is up for debate.
The Jaylon Tyson transfer was a major failure in my opinion as well. There's no excuse for not giving him more run. I think the same about Tre Mitchell, and whether he returns or not, 18 minutes per game was not sufficient.
Conclusion:
I'm not writing this article to say that Beard has done a terrible job, or that the program needs saving; in fact, I think this is a passable first year. But when you look at it in context regarding preseason rankings, it's fairly obvious that this team has been underwhelming. Of course, this entire article could be rendered meaningless if Texas makes a run in the tournament, and we also have to realize how tough of a conference this is, and think that in the NCAA Tournament, they will not be facing this level of defense most likely. Their tournament performance is going to depend a lot on who they end up drawing. A Sweet 16 appearance would fix all of these problems, and have the hype train rolling into next year.
This isn't a Michigan basketball situation, where a top-five preseason team isn't going to make the tournament (also, Chris Beard hasn't slapped a guy in the handshake line to my knowledge). It's a situation in which a team was overvalued and not congruent with each other for a lot of reasons. We will have to see how they perform the rest of the conference slate and in the Big 12 tournament as well. Lots more basketball to be played.
