No. 8 Kansas comes to town to take on the no. 20 Texas Longhorns in Texas' highest-ranked matchup since Gonzaga the second game of the year. Texas looks for another ranked win here after two ranked wins in their last four games.
KU is top eight in the nation for a reason, even despite their destruction at the hands of Kentucky in the Big-12/SEC challenge. Since then, they've dismantled Baylor and beaten down Iowa State, which they did without All-American Ochai Agbaji. They're 19-3 on the season, and cruising towards Bill Self's 20th regular-season Big-12 title.
Here's their starting five.
Kansas' strengths.
Kansas likes to run its high-flying offense (averaging 80.2 PPG) through All-American Ochai Agbaji as well as Christian Braun, their top two scorers, but also like to get C David McCormack involved early and often as well – if they can get him going, their entire offense works better. They will run lob sets for him, especially after timeouts and inbounds plays.
When they're able to get production from McCormack down low, they're able to spread the floor better for their shooters, drawing defenders inside and causing possible missed rotations for the Longhorns on the outside.
Mostly, however, Kansas likes to get up and down the floor in transition. They ran a ton of transition against then-ranked no. 8 Baylor, a game in which they completely dominated and won 83-59 against one of the better defenses in the conference. The strategy Baylor employed was to crash the boards hard against Kansas, following their own misses immediately, which bit them ultimately, as it set up several fast-break baskets for the Jayhawks.
Kansas' Weaknesses.
Kansas doesn't have a ton of weaknesses, but the problem for the Jayhawks all year has been post play. McCormack, the starting C, has been beaten down low for buckets all year, which is what Texas is going to have to try to do to win this game. This means running the three-forward lineup and trying to pound it inside to Mitchell and Bishop. It also means driving hard to the cup and trying to get layups that way.
Allen should still initiate offense from the top, and Carr should be playing off-ball for the most part. The less dribbling he does around the perimeter, the better.
Here's Texas' starting lineup.
What Texas needs to do to win today:
• Focus more on transition defense than on crashing the boards.
This is what got Baylor killed in Lawrence a couple of days ago. They would send multiple guys to the rim after a miss, allowing for Kansas to slip the defense and score easily in transition. Texas should be playing it like defensive backs, trailing back to the other side of the floor if there's not a good opportunity to try to score an offensive board. They need to keep Kansas out of transition.
• Attack McCormack down low and try to draw some fouls.
This seems like generic advice that could work in any game, but Kansas especially has trouble stopping points in the paint. Kentucky annihilated Kansas by beating them up down low and getting to the line 16 times, where they converted 12 of them. While Texas doesn't have an Oscar Tshiebwe to physically dominate the Jayhawks, they have capable forwards who can make things happen offensively, namely Christian Bishop, who has been nails for Texas in the last few games. Looking for Bishop on backdoor cuts after drives will be a key to scoring. Feeding Mitchell and letting him try to make something happen could also be big here, if he can avoid turning the ball over on strips.
This also means not dribbling into traps when they drive, which is a product of over-dribbling for the most part. When they put the ball on the deck, they need to be decisive, avoiding empty trips down the floor that result in turnovers or bad shots with an expiring shot clock.
• Shut down Kansas' interior offense and force them to score from elsewhere.
Against Kentucky, Kansas' big men McCormack and Lightfoot combined for nine points and eight boards, but against Baylor, the Jayhawks out-rebounded the Bears 46-37 and outscored them in the paint by 22. Agbaji and Braun are going to get their points, but if Texas can keep the big men at bay, they have a shot in this one. Like I said earlier, Kansas will try to do everything they can to get McCormack feeling good early in this one. If Texas can cause him to struggle and can take advantage inside, that's one less area for Kansas to beat them.
Prediction:
Kansas ML (-125)
Kansas Spread (-1.5)
O/U: under 131.5
