After a truly up-and-down week for Texas basketball, in which they beat eighth-ranked Kansas at home then got blown out by 10th-ranked Baylor on the road, Texas faces another tough test at arch-rival Oklahoma. The Sooners, despite their record, have been playing much better basketball in the last week, blowing out Texas Tech at home, 70-55, and nearly taking down Kansas on the road, losing a close one, 71-69. It took a 15-2 run from Kansas in the second half to win the game for the Jayhawks.
The emergence of Umoja Gibson was big in the Texas Tech matchup, as he went for 30 points on 8/11 from three. This victory gave them their fourth ranked win of the season, meaning that they have every bit the talent needed to take down Texas tonight, especially if they play the defense they displayed against the Red Raiders. They held TTU's leading scorer Bryson Williams to five points on 2/7 shooting, suffocating him in the paint and forcing difficult shots throughout the game.
Here's Oklahoma's starting lineup.
Oklahoma beat Texas Tech behind their three-point shooting, hitting 13 of them despite being a 33.5% team from three all year. We can reasonably expect that this won't happen tonight from beyond the arc for Oklahoma; we can, however, expect them to play Texas super tough defensively. Texas Tech shot just 2/17 from deep in that game, and the Red Raiders' offense plays similarly to Texas' offense, running into the same problems often.
Oklahoma is 44th in the nation in opponents' points per game at 63.9 and 65th overall in defensive rating in the country. They defend the three-point line well, giving up just 30% on the season to opponents. Most of their scoring is done from their starters, as no one off the bench scores more than 4.5 points per game.
Here's Texas' starting lineup.
What Texas needs to do to win today:
• Do what they did to Tanner Groves in their last matchup.
Groves, from the forward spot, is Oklahoma's leading scorer, but was held to just three points against Texas last go around (one field goal and one free throw). They did this by pressuring him in the paint with a combination of Bishop and Mitchell guarding him. He only played 16 minutes because of early foul trouble (just six in the first half), so going at Groves early in this game and trying to get him some cheap fouls will be important to limiting his offensive impact.
• Force live-ball turnovers and swarm.
Texas had 11 steals in the last game against Oklahoma, part of 17 total turnovers by the Sooners. OU had a six-minute scoreless streak as well, part of an 11-0 run by Texas that gave them the 33-21 lead going into the half. The Longhorns held them to 1/13 from three as well, keeping them at 52 points for the game. If Texas can replicate this defensive showing, they have a really good chance at taking this one back to Austin.
• Lock down Umoja Gibson.
Umoja Gibson scored 30 points against Texas Tech on 8/11 from three, as I mentioned earlier. If he does this against Texas, the Longhorns will lose. Unlike the Baylor game, where the Bears had too many weapons to focus on one player, Texas can, if necessary, give Gibson the "Agbaji treatment," having Ramey face-guard him for the matchup. They probably won't need to do this, but it's nice to know that they can pull this trick out if he gets hot from outside.
Prediction:
This is a trap game for Texas, but I think they'll come out fired up after their blowout loss on Saturday. If they had beaten Baylor, I'd actually be more nervous and awaiting a let down. However, I think they'll be focused for this game, and will win on the road.
Score prediction: 63-58, Texas
Spread: Texas -1
ML: Texas -115
O/U: under 124
