This morning, Texas takes on Texas Tech in a rematch of the most hyped home game in Texas Tech basketball history, which the Red Raiders won, 77-64. A contest that Texas was never in gave Mark Adams a signature win over the Longhorns, but just one of many that the Red Raiders have had this year – currently, they sit tied at second place in the conference after completing the sweep of Baylor on Tuesday night.
Texas Tech, when they're hitting shots from deep, is one of the best teams in the country. But that is a big "if." Last week, they visited the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman, losing 70-55 in a game in which they shot 2/17 from three. When Texas Tech goes cold – which happens – they are vulnerable. Part of that was Umoja Gibson's 30-point night on 8/11 from three, some of it was the fact that Texas Tech had only two players in double figures, and no player with more than 12 points. Scoring leader Bryson Williams managed just five points on seven field goal attempts.
Here's Texas Tech's starting lineup:
Texas' first half against the Red Raiders went about as poorly as a half has gone for the Longhorns this season, down 43-29 at the break. Against a team that plays like Texas Tech does, it's much more difficult to come from behind and retake the lead. Texas played a solid second half, but it was too late to make a difference. The Red Raiders were hitting from three, which they don't normally do, at all. In fact, Texas Tech has shot 33% or better just four times in 13 tries in conference play this year, and one of those times, they took just nine threes (5/9 for 53.8% vs. TCU).
Texas Tech has managed to win conference games with the following three-point percentages:
Kansas: 4/16 for 25%
Baylor: 4/14 for 28.6%
Oklahoma State: 9/23 for 39.1%
Iowa State: 3/16 for 18.8%
West Virginia: 5/20 for 25%
Texas: 8/19 for 42.1%
West Virginia: 4/21 for 19%
TCU: 5/9 for 53.8%
Baylor: 7/21 for 33.3%
They lost with the following percentages:
Iowa State: 3/17 for 17.6%
Kansas State: 4/17 for 23.5%
Kansas: 6/20 for 30%
Oklahoma: 2/17 for 11.8%
So, from this, we can reasonably assume that they won't repeat their shooting performance from the last game, their best of the year when taking volume into account, but this obviously doesn't mean that Texas will win, as the Red Raiders have dominated even when the three isn't falling. In two of these conference losses, Texas Tech had a player on the opposing team score 30+ points (30 from Umoja Gibson of Oklahoma and 37 from Ochai Agbaji of Kansas). Does Texas have a player capable of carrying the scoring load in that kind of manner?
Here's the Texas starting lineup.
What Texas needs to do to win today:
• Attack the glass.
Texas Tech out-rebounded Texas 37-28 and 11-6 on the offensive glass. That simply can't happen today if the Longhorns want any kind of shot at winning. The Red Raiders nearly doubled up Texas on second-chance points in the last matchup. In order for the Longhorns to pull off the upset, they're going to need Christian Bishop to play the game of his life on the boards. He's going to need to get several offensive rebounds and get some easy points off of put-backs. Timmy Allen will need to do the same.
• Stay out of foul trouble.
Due to the Tre Mitchell situation, Texas is thin on the front lines. This means any kind of foul trouble from any of their bigs would be a real problem, specifically Christian Bishop and Timmy Allen, as they're the premier players at the forward spot. They're going to need Disu to avoid bad fouls as well, as he's going to play a lot of minutes today. Hopefully for the Longhorns' sake, they can play defense, using their bodies instead of their hands to avoid tick-tack calls.
• Get to the free-throw line.
Texas had no free-throw attempts in the first half of the last Texas Tech game in Lubbock, which is something they have to fix. They need to get to the line early and often in this one, considering how bad of a physical matchup the Red Raiders are for the Longhorns, with size at nearly every position and elite defensive players like Kevin McCullar and Terrence Shannon. Free throws are a great way for this team to manufacture points, and they're going to need to manufacture as many points as possible.
Prediction:
While I don't think Texas Tech will light it up from behind the arc today, I still think they are physically too much for Texas. They're essentially just a more athletic version of this Texas team, facing the same problems with shooting the ball consistently.
Surprisingly, Texas is actually favored in this game by 3.5 points.
Score: Texas Tech 70, Texas 62
Spread: Texas Tech +3.5
ML: Texas Tech +140
O/U: over 127
