The Longhorns are in Morgantown, West Virginia today to take on the Mountaineers in a sold-out venue, because that's what happens when Texas comes to town. One of the best players in the conference leads West Virginia in Taz Sherman, who didn't play in the last matchup against Texas due to COVID protocols.
Sherman averages over 18 points per game, good for second in the conference behind only Ochai Agbaji of Kansas; he also leads the team in assists. Outside of him and Sean McNeil, they really find trouble scoring, with the 245th-ranked offensive rating in the country. The Mountaineers started the season 13-2 and 2-1 in conference before dropping 12 of their next 13 in the brutal Big 12 slate (and a loss to Arkansas in the Big12/SEC challenge). So they sit now at 14-14, looking to get some revenge on the Longhorns before their season ends with the conference tournament.
Though Chris Beard said he doesn't believe in "trap games," West Virginia on the road fits the bill for this moniker. They're hungry and desperate, and have the firepower in Sherman to make this interesting.
Here's West Virginia's starting lineup.
Sean McNeil, the other offensive weapon, is a solid three-point shooter at 37% per game, their best shooter from deep. They also get points from Malik Curry and Jalen Bridges, but outside of those four, points are hard to come by for West Virginia. They haven't been close to winning in most of their losses in the last 13 games, either.
Other than a near-upset of Baylor where a concussion took Taz Sherman out of the game, they're struggled to really even hang in most of these Big 12 games.
Here's Texas' starting lineup.
What Texas needs to do to win today:
• Lock down Taz Sherman.
Easier said than done, obviously. Sherman is the type of player that can get hot and go for 25, so it's important to deny him the ball as much as possible. Since their primary scoring options are both guards, the strategy should be to lock down the perimeter. If he gets hot enough, Texas may opt to give him the Ochai Agbaji face-guarding treatment with Ramey. We'll see if that's necessary.
• Get to the free-throw line.
The Longhorns are going to have a streak of not hitting field goals today, as they have in nearly every game this season (which isn't unique to Texas by the way). In a hostile road environment, getting the opponent in foul trouble early is going to be key to creating points. Against TCU, they got to the line 29 times. If they can do something similar today, I like their odds.
• Take care of the ball.
Against TCU on Wednesday, Texas won the turnover margin by nine, which was a huge reason they were able to overcome their deficit in the second half. Taking care of the ball has been the crux of many of Texas' wins this year, and generally, when they lose the turnover battle, they lose the game. A lot of their turnovers have come on lazy entry passes to the post, so if they can limit these, their shot of winning improves drastically.
Prediction:
Texas 70, West Virginia 64
Spread: Texas -3
ML: Texas -160
O/U: over 132