MBB: Who wins the Big XII Tournament? (plus info on how to watch)

Seth Fowler graduated from Texas in 1998. Since 2004, he has been helping home buyers and sellers in the DFW Metroplex. Whether new construction, existing homes, investment property, or land, he is your Real Estate Sherpa - guiding you through the process, making it an enjoyable experience. Based in Tarrant County, however, he will help connect you with a quality Realtor anywhere in Texas, the United States, or in the world. When looking to purchase or sell real estate in this new market, call Seth at 817.980.6636.

*****

It's the most, wonderful time, of the year!

Conference tournaments have already started across the country, with a few teams punching their tickets to the NCAAs already: Kennesaw State won the Atlantic Sun; UNC-Asheville won the Big South; Drake won the Missouri Valley; Farleigh-Dickinson won the Northeast Conference; Southeast Missouri won the Ohio Valley; Furman won the Southern, and Louisiana (who Texas beat, 100-72) won the Sun Belt.

But we're here to talk Big XII Tournament, because the gladiatorial clash of mostly ranked teams that consistently beat the hell out of each other all season begins on Wednesday night. Here's a look at the layout. (I would have uploaded the Big XII official version, but it's blurry and hard to read, so I made this crappy one in Excel. Nice job Big XII graphics guys).

SCHEDULE

First round -- Wednesday, March 8

Game 1: No. 8 West Virginia vs. No. 9 Texas Tech | 7 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPNU

Game 2: No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Oklahoma | 9:30 p.m. on ESPN2/ESPNU

Quarterfinals -- Thursday, March 9

Game 3: No. 4 Baylor vs. No. 5 Iowa State | 12:30 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN2

Game 4: No. 1 Kansas vs. Game 1 winner | 3 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN2

Game 5: No. 2 Texas vs. Game 2 winner | 7 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN2

Game 6: No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 6 TCU | 9:30 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN2

Semifinals -- Friday, March 10

Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner | 7 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN2

Game 8: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner | 9:30 p.m. on ESPN/ESPN2

Big 12 Tournament Championship Game -- Saturday, March 11

Game 9: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner | 6 p.m. on ESPN.

Texas catches the winner of the Bedlam three-match after Oklahoma State swept the Sooners in the regular season. If you're a Texas fan, you'd probably much rather see OU than the Pokes; OSU is 8-10 in conference versus Oklahoma's 5-13 record. Texas swept both teams this year, but definitely would prefer to face their hated rival again versus more of a "wild card" in the Cowboys.

Regardless, Texas shouldn't be playing with nerves, as they don't really have much to lose in the tournament unless they somehow get blown out in the game after their first-round bye and are relegated to a 3-seed; even then, I still think the Longhorns have secured the 2-seed regardless of what happens in the Big XII tourney.

The upside is that they can possibly increase their seeding, whether it be a higher 2-seed or a coveted 1-seed, if, say, they win the conference tournament. Additionally, a couple of games against good teams wouldn't be a bad warm-up for next week's NCAAs.

Let's say Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then loses to Texas in the second round. Texas would then take on the winner of the Kansas State/TCU game, neither of whom you'd like to see again, as Kansas State is a better team than TCU, but TCU is a worse matchup for the Longhorns.

Of course, that's not to say they wouldn't win either of those games – they split both series this season, as they did with every team that wasn't Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, or West Virginia, all of whom they swept. On a neutral floor, they're pretty evenly matched with both squads.

On the other side of the bracket, the first-round "play-in" game (for lack of a better word) features West Virginia and a Texas Tech program reeling from the controversy involving their head coach Mark Adams, who has been suspended at the very least and probably will be fired.

The first overall seed is obviously Kansas, who, after their first-round matchup against Texas Tech or West Virginia, then takes on the winner of Baylor/Iowa State. Below are the odds for the Big XII Tournament championship (via Bovada).

Regardless of where you start in this tournament, it's going to be a difficult rise to the top. Start as the one seed? After your second-round match against Texas Tech or Oklahoma, you likely have to play Baylor. Beat OU / OSU if you're 2-seeded Texas, you either face 3-seed Kansas State or surging 6-seed TCU, who just won the game between them in Fort Worth.

It's a bloodbath is what I'm saying. Whoever wins this tournament absolutely deserves a bump in their seeding, whether that's a 4-seed to a 3-seed or a 6-seed to a 4-seed. Should they win, the Longhorns would find themselves as a 1-seed, guaranteeing, along with Kansas, two 1-seeds for the conference.

If TCU wins the conference postseason crown, they will go from a likely 5-seed to a 3-seed. ISU? 6-seed to a 4-seed (or 3-seed maybe). Basically subtract a couple of numbers from their pre-conference tournament seed and that's what it will look like if that team wins it. Obviously there is the slim possibility of a team like Texas Tech's or Oklahoma's winning the Big XII Tournament and earning an auto-berth to the NCAAs, but I wouldn't count on either of those teams doing so.

Really, the team with the most to gain is Oklahoma State, a bubble team that could be brought on board the NCAAs possibly if they beat OU first round, but definitely if they upset Texas in Round 2. That's no easy task, obviously; sweeping OU for three straight games would probably be a lot of fun for Pokes fans, and I think it's realistic to assume they could, but beating this Texas team is pretty difficult. Hell, the Pokes might get more consideration if they just hang tight with seventh-ranked Texas.

As a "casual" bettor, I'm going to take TCU +600 to win the conference tournament, just because I like their matchups a lot in the teams they'll be playing against. They don't have to play in the first round. Second round, they will play against Kansas State, with whom they split this season, both in blowout fashion in favor of the home team. They also get to duck Baylor and Kansas until a championship game appearance.

If 6-seed TCU can get past 3-seed Kansas State, who I think is actually a worse matchup for them than Texas is, watch out. I wouldn't be surprised if they found themselves in the title game after beating the Longhorns for the second time in a row, mostly due to a possible rebounding discrepancy, the same kind that dictated the outcome of the last matchup.

They have excellent guard play with Mike Miles Jr. and Damion Baugh, great rebounding with Emanuel Miller and Eddie Lampkin, Jr., a nice piece off the bench in JaKobe Coles, a good wing in Chuck O'Bannon Jr., and great interior presence with the aforementioned Lampkin, Jr. Texas has obviously beaten them before in this season, so it's doable. But Texas is going to have to rebound the damn ball.

At +250, the Jayhawks have the shortest odds to win the conference crown, which would be their second conference title for 2022-23.. They have to be the favorite here, though a Baylor run wouldn't surprise me. I do have to say that Texas lucked out in that they also won't face Baylor or Kansas until a possible championship game appearance; while Kansas State had a better season than Baylor did, the Bears have that elite back court of Keyonte George, Adam Flagler, and LJ Cryer, all of whom can hit the three easily and on average combine for over 45 points per game. That's a team you don't want to face if they get hot.

Due to this fortunate setup for the Longhorns, a trip to the Big XII Title Game seems much more reasonable than it has in years past. I know I just talked about how TCU has advantages over Texas, but if you're a Longhorns fan, you'd much rather face the winner of KSU/TCU than Baylor in the semis (do remember, though – they still have to beat the winner of Bedlam before any of this matters).

Just like the regular season, I think Texas comes up just short of a conference title and loses to Kansas in the conference championship game. Essentially a home game for KU in that it's in Kansas City every year, with Lawrence is just 40 minutes away, winning the Big XII against that team in that environment is really, really difficult.

There's a reason why Kansas has won 12 of the last 25 Big XII tournaments, and it isn't just that they're always considerably better than their competition. They have a built-in home-court advantage. It's like the University of Tostitos playing in the Fiesta Bowl.

But I digress.

Texas absolutely could win this conference championship and launch themselves into a 1-seed, but I just think they'll finish as a high-2. No shame in that. Plenty of 2-seeds have gone on to win a title. Maybe this Texas team will be the next one.