No. 10 Texas seeks to defend home court vs. Oklahoma State (8pm CST, LHN)

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One of the hottest teams in the Big 12 at 16-3 (5-2 in conference), Texas takes on Oklahoma State for the second time this season, looking to defend their home floor against Cowboys team that, like much of the Big 12, is better than its 11-8 (3-4) record.

The last time these two teams played, Texas pulled out an ugly win on the road in Stillwater, 56-46, that was hilariously lacking in offense. Take a look at the stats:

To say it was a tough game to watch would be an understatement, but once again, it's a road win in the Big 12, so you gotta take them however you can get them. The Longhorns sit second in the conference right now in overall record and league record, trailing just Kansas State and tied with just Iowa State, though the Cyclones have a head-to-head tiebreaker against Texas.

The Longhorns are coming off of a nice victory against West Virginia in Morgantown, 69-61, where they really flexed their muscles behind the talents of one Marcus Carr, who scored 19 second-half points after a slow, four-point first half. Carr has been having an absolutely dynamite season scoring the basketball for Texas, averaging 17.4 points per as well as notching 4.2 assists. He's on track to be an all-BIg-12 performer this season if he keeps these numbers going.

The Pokes' offense hasn't been anything spectacular this season, as they rank in the bottom 100 in the nation, scoring just 67.8 points per game (290th), shooting 50% from two (219th) and 32.6% from three (259th) for an overall percentage of 43.2% (257th). Oklahoma State plays ugly, defensive, grind-it-out basketball, and are good at making teams play their pace.

Avery Anderson III, Bryce Thompson, and Kalib Boone lead Oklahoma State on offense, a trio of double-digit scorers that essentially dictate how the offense is run. In the first matchup between these two squads, Boone led all with 16 points, a third of his team's total. It should be interesting to see what Rodney Terry does scheme-wise to handle the efficiently scoring forward, who hit 100% of his attempts in the second half last time.

When Texas beat the Cowboys on the road in Stillwater on January 7th, they scored just 56 points and still managed a double-digit victory, which is sort of an indication of the kind of game the Pokes want to play, even in the loss. Texas, who ranks 31st in the nation in transition points per game at 13.9, only had three points in the fast break the entire game, which proves my earlier point that OSU gets teams to play their style.

Luckily for Texas, they can play that style as well, even if they don't prefer it. Successful teams like Texas learn to win games in multiple ways, so if it's rock-fight basketball Oklahoma State wants, it's rock-fight basketball they'll get.

OSU is a defensive team, as I just illustrated above. They're 25th in the country in points allowed per game at just 61.9, and are really good on the glass, especially on the defensive end, where they're 68th in the country, grabbing nearly 27 defensive rebounds per game.

Much of their success in this area comes from 2021-22 Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Year in Moussa Cisse, who's grabbing just shy of nine boards per game. In addition to his prowess on the glass, Cisse is, as you can probably guess from the qualifier above, an absolutely excellent rim protector, and is some one the Longhorns didn't have to face in their inaugural 2023 matchup on January 7th.

Make no mistake: Cisse will have a major impact on this game; Texas lucked out not having to play him the first time around. He's the kind of player a coach has to scheme around, because shots at the rim will be at a premium. He's had nine games of three or more blocks this season, including four with four or more blocks. He's an impact player that will definitely give Oklahoma State a better chance to win than they had last time.

• The return of Moussa Cisse.

I wrote about this earlier, but the key for Texas in this game is going to be how they handle center Moussa Cisse, a 6'11, mobile big who can run the floor and is a fluid athlete. Though not particularly an offensive threat, he can score on put-backs and catch lobs, so it will be up to the Texas front court to handle him. It won't be as easy as it has been lately for Dylan Disu and Christian Bishop to score, even considering how well the pair of forwards/centers has been playing. This may be a Dillon Mitchell game, who can out-athlete Cisse, which Disu and Bishop won't be able to do.

• Free-throw discrepancy.

FT differential was a major reason that Texas was able to steal one in Stillwater, as they hit 81% from the line as compared to Oklahoma State, who shot just 57%. The Longhorns shot 31% from the field overall and 28% from three, while the Pokes shot essentially the same percentages, making for a very tough-to-watch game, unless you're a defensive guy. Players like SirJabari Rice and Marcus Carr have to get to the line in this one, especially if they're going to shoot from the field as they have historically against the Cowboys. Carr (81.2%) and Rice (85.2%) are the team's top foul shooters, and have put games away with clutch shots from the stripe a few times already this season. This will be a key to today's game, since the OSU defense will be much improved due to their center's return.

• Blocks, steals, and turnovers.

Last game, Oklahoma State blocked 12 of Texas' shots at the rim, while Texas only managed to block one of the Pokes'. The turnovers were +3 in Texas' favor (18 for OSU, 15 for Texas), and the Longhorns stole the ball twice as often, 10 to five. These three categories are crucial in defensive-minded games, because blocks and steals can lead to run-outs, which is the way Texas likes to score some of its points. Adding Cisse to the mix means the block differential will probably favor Oklahoma State once again, so Texas' bigs are going to have to go up really strong in the paint when facing him or facing Kalib Boone, who had six of the 12 last time around. Boone is probably the best player on the floor for OSU at any given time, so paying attention to his role is going to be vital for the 'Horns to protect home court.

Oklahoma State +8.5 (-110)

Under 136 (-110)

I think Texas wins this game, even by a couple of possessions maybe, but eight and a half points in a game that will likely be very low scoring is a lot to cover. I think the best bet is to take the Cowboys plus the points here, as I foresee another score similar to the one in Stillwater; i.e., 102 total points isn't out of the question. This also leads me to my next bet, which is the under – it almost seems too easy, which is why I'm avoiding it altogether.

Tyrese Hunter under 9.5 points (-118)

Tyrese Hunter has struggled to find his groove lately, scoring over 9.5 points just twice in his last five games (given, his last two were 10 and 11). Oklahoma State has on of the best defenses in the country, and I don't see their letting Hunter go wild in this one. I'd take the under on his points.