No. 2 Texas takes on no. 17 Illinois at MSG (6pm CST tip, ESPN)

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Tonight, your second-ranked Texas Longhorns take on a really talented Illinois team (ranked 17th) at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Given their last two top-10 opponents have been to an extent "exposed" (Gonzaga with three losses, Creighton with three losses including one to Nebraska), Illinois may actually be the most talented team they've seen this year.

They have just two losses, both to top-13 teams in a 70-61 loss to third-ranked UVA and a 71-66 loss to 13th-ranked Maryland on the road. It will also be Texas' first real test away from the Moody Center, though it's a neutral site game.

The Fighting Illini have a couple of familiar faces on the roster as former Big 12 players transferred there – most notably Texas Tech transfer SF Terrence Shannon Jr., who is their leading scorer (19.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists) and widely considered their best player. They also have former Baylor SF Matthew Mayer, though he is not nearly as prominent in their offense as Shannon Jr. is.

Shannon Jr. has made significant strides since leaving Lubbock, becoming a player that had a small bit of NBA Draft hype to a guy that will have plenty moving forward. His 29-point outburst versus then-eighth-ranked UCLA, which led the Illini to a 79-70 victory, established his game on a national stage. He's shooting 39% from three this year on nearly seven attempts per game, and has had just one game under 14 points on the year: nine against a Virginia team that is known for its defensive prowess (and Reece Beekman is a hell of a defender).

Here is Illinois' starting lineup.

Illinois Offense.

The Illini run a four-out, flow-motion offense that involves a lot of ball reversals and high pick-and-roll actions. Many of their shots are created through drive-and-kicks to open shooters. The focal point of the offense is – you guessed it – Terrence Shannon Jr.

Check the clip below for a drive by Terrence Shannon Jr. (#0). His left hand is his dominant hand, and the one he uses on drives. There isn't a lot to break down here, as it is essentially an iso-motion where the Illini clear out and let Shannon Jr. go to work. Note his ability to hang and hit the shot, an indication of his athleticism. The fact that he is a 6'6 guard is also means Texas is going to have trouble defending him, as Texas' guards are undersized (Hunter is 6'1, Carr is 6'2, Rice is 6'3 and Morris is 6'4). Morris may play more in this game as a guy who can physically hang with Shannon Jr.

Watch the kick-out here from the post. Coleman Hawkins (#33) rebounds the miss, and passes to the cutting Matthew Mayer (#24) who puts himself in position in the lane for a possible contested lay-in. Instead, Mayer uses his vision to send the ball out to Terrence Shannon Jr. (#0), who is wide open from deep. UCLA's Jaime Jaquez Jr. (#24) has already committed to playing defense in the lane, not realizing that Shannon is ready for the pass on the perimeter. Shannon sinks the three at a crucial moment. Look for Shannon to take a lot of threes against the Longhorns tonight, as he has the aforementioned size advantage and can shoot over Texas' shorter guards.

Here's an example of another drive-and-kick, this time to Matthew Mayer, the former Baylor Bear. Jayden Epps (#3) gets the ball from Ty Rodgers (#20) in the corner and head fakes to get UCLA's Tyger Campbell (#10) in the air. He takes to the rack, but realizes UCLA's Kenneth Nwoba (#14) has come over on the help defense, making a take from that angle a difficult ask. Instead of taking the ill-advised look, he turns up court to see an unguarded Matthew Mayer (#24), whose defender, UCLA's Jaime Jaquez (#24), has lost him by cheating up to to help guard Dain Dainja (#42) in the paint. Mayer is wide open, and Jaquez isn't close enough to effectively close out. Mayer sinks the shot from deep, giving Illinois an early 13-12 lead.

Illinois defense.

Defensively, Illinois isn't dissimilar from Texas. They play a man-to-man that switches on ball screens and off-ball screens. As a team with good length, it works well for them. Their objectives are to (a) limit freedom of movement and (b) force contested shots from the midrange. They also create a lot of turnovers and like to run the break when they do so.

Maryland beat this defense by hitting threes (9/23, so 39%), so naturally, Texas is going to have to shoot better from deep than they have so far this year (28%). The problem is that the Illini have several wings they can throw at Texas' guards. The Longhorns' top two three-point shooters, Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter, are both under 6'3. Illinois has Shannon Jr. (6'6), Matthew Mayer (6'9), and RJ Melendez (6'7), all of whom can be asked to body the Texas guards.

Here's an example of how Illinois swarms the ball defensively. Watch how they switch on the ball screen and contest the pass, resulting in a steal and a fast break opportunity for Terrence Shannon Jr. (he missed the dunk, which is why I cut the clip there). Shannon Jr. reads the route and, like a cornerback, jumps the pass and takes it down to the other end. Texas can expect these kinds of switches between guys with size tonight, meaning they'll have to be extra careful, as Illinois attacks passing lanes well.

Here's an example of ball movement that beats Illinois' defense. It begins with a give-and-go between the two Maryland guards, which results in dribble penetration because of the screen set on Skyy Moore. Because the Maryland guard is too deep in position to get up a good shot, he looks outside and sees an open Terrapin outside the three-point line, who was lost on a switch earlier in the possession. He's wide open and knocks down the three. Texas will have to use sets like this in order to get guys open and to neutralize all of Illinois' length. They also need to knock down open shots from deep, or they will struggle to score in this game.

Here's another example of how to get an open shot against the Illinois defense. It's a pretty simple drive-and-kick set here, with the Maryland forward backing down his defender until the Illini defense swarms him. Once they do, he sees an open look for his teammate after a blown coverage defensively. Though he misses the shot, the strategy is clear: get the ball to the open man on the weak side of the defense to set him up for a good look.

Strengths.

Illinois is a really good team in transition. They have multiple guys who can grab-and-go off of missed shots, and they make their opponent defend for the entire shot clock. When they get rolling downhill, they’re a tough team to slow down.

In its win over UCLA in the Main Event in Las Vegas, Illinois sped the Bruins up with a pressing defense and got the fast break going. They’re also good at getting good looks on the secondary break.

Weaknesses.

Illinois struggles with three things.

(A) They turn the ball over. They are currently 11th in the Big 10 in turnover margin.

(B) They foul quite a bit against high-major opponents. Maryland and Virginia essentially beat Illinois at the free-throw line.

(C) They don't shoot foul shots well when they get to the line themselves.

Prediction.

Texas is a 2.5-point favorite over the Illini at MSG tonight. Due to their length and athleticism, I think that Illinois will be Texas' toughest matchup so far, and will be easily the best defense they've played. It will depend on their making threes to win the game. Since they've struggled to do so, I think Illinois will take advantage and will most likely cover, though I think Texas might still win due to their ability to turn over other teams.

Best bet: Illinois +2.5