No. 7 Texas travels to Ames to take on no. 12 Iowa State in top-15 clash
Seth Fowler graduated from Texas in 1998. Since 2004, he has been helping home buyers and sellers in the DFW Metroplex. Whether new construction, existing homes, investment property, or land, he is your Real Estate Sherpa - guiding you through the process, making it an enjoyable experience. Based in Tarrant County, however, he will help connect you with a quality Realtor anywhere in Texas, the United States, or in the world. When looking to purchase or sell real estate in this new market, call Seth at 817.980.6636.
***
ESPN+, 7pm tip.
After back-to-back comeback wins at the Moody Center against TCU and Texas Tech, the hits keep on coming for the Longhorns in the juggernaut Big 12: a road date with the Cyclones is next on the agenda, as their head coach TJ Otzelberger continues his impressive run at Iowa State. The Cyclones have accomplished quite a bit in the last year and a half, despite not having the highest-rated talent. They lost their two best players in the offseason: Izaiah Brockington to pro basketball and Tyrese Hunter to Texas on a transfer waiver, yet are still playing elite basketball. You have to give Otzelberger some props for the machine he's building, especially considering the elite recruiting class he's bringing in for 2023.
As of right now, Iowa State sits at 12th in the nation, with a 13-3 record. They're coming off of a one-possession loss to the second-ranked Kansas Jayhawks, 62-60, and are favored by 2.5 tonight against the 15-2 Longhorns, who have been hot lately as well.
Iowa State is more of a defensive team, as they only score 70.8 points per game, but give up just 57.9, which is seventh in the nation. Offensively, they're led by a three-headed snake of guards in Jaren Holmes, Gabe Kalscheur, and Caleb Grill. While they don't take as many threes as most teams do, they shoot a pretty good percentage from three at 35.7%. Grill and Holmes shoot above 37% from deep, and Kalscheur shoots just shy of 35%.
Two key pieces for ISU's team are transfers from St. Bonaventure: the aforementioned guard Jaren Holmes as well as power forward Osun Osunniyi, both of whom are seniors. In fact, the Cyclones have a very mature team by age: seven of their eight rotation guys are seniors, which accounts for the fact that they play such good hustle defense and are highly rated in basically every category on that side of the ball.
Offensively, as I previously referenced, they're not elite, but like Texas last year, they like to slow it down and grind games out, so the fact that they don't score as much isn't so much indicative of a struggling offense as it is a team that hyper focuses defensively.
Here's Iowa State's starting lineup.
What to watch for.
Tyrese Hunter's return to Hilton Coliseum.
Tyrese Hunter transferred from Iowa State to Texas this offseason and assumed the starting point guard role for the Longhorns. He had a hot start to the season, but has been lacking confidence lately; he has scored in double digits just once in the last five games (albeit it was 29 in the loss versus Kansas State). According to what I've seen on twitter, the ISU fans are, well, not happy with Hunter's decision. It's a smaller-scale version of the Texas Tech fans when their former coach left to come to Texas or when Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma to take the job at USC. Watch for a lot of boos and mean-spirited chants. We'll see if it affects Hunter mentally, or gets him going.
Battle of the Back Courts.
Both teams' strengths are in their guard play – the matchup between Hunter/Carr/Rice and Holmes/Kalscheur/Grill should be a fascinating one to witness tonight. It's two of the top five back courts in the conference: Texas's own three-pronged attack on average combines for 38.5 points and 9.6 assists, while Iowa State's averages 35.8 points and 6.5 assists. Carr is the only real consistent three-point threat for the 'Horns outside of limited, wide-open takes by forward Brock Cunningham; Carr shoots 41.1% from three on the year. Meanwhile, as I said earlier, ISU's Holmes and Grill shoot 37%, while Kalscheur shoots 35%.
Turnover Margin.
Both teams create a very high number of turnovers for the opposing offense: Iowa State forces 19.4 turnovers per game, while Texas forces 17.1 per. Neither team is prone to a lot of turnovers either; both take good care of the ball, as Texas averages 11.8 per game, and ISU, 12.9. The winner of this game will likely be the team that takes better care of the ball since most of the stats are pretty even. Texas is top 25 in points scored per game with 81.5, while Iowa State ranks in the top 10 in points allowed at just 57.9. The unstoppable force meets the immovable object.
Prediction.
Texas ML
I think Texas goes into a hostile environment tonight and leaves with a W. This won't be any kind of blowout: the 2.5-point spread illustrates how close Vegas thinks it's going to be. ISU also just played Kansas as tightly as anyone in the conference has, so they will be feeling confident about themselves coming into this home matchup. Tyrese Hunter will show out, in my opinion, and have a huge game against his former team and coach.