Pitcher usage: What Pierce's different 2019 plan might look like and mean

A college head coach is faced with many challenges each season, but among the most important is maximizing his roster. Fortunately for Texas, David Pierce and his staff have made the most of what they have for two seasons in a row.

Following a solid first season, Pierce took the Longhorns to Omaha in 2018, and did so with a pitching staff that was low on talent. Many longtime area scouts shook their head throughout the season. “How did they get that group to Omaha?” one texted me after Nolan Kingham punched UT’s Omaha ticket.

It took a while, but Pierce and his staff, most notably pitching coach Phil Haig, found the right pieces to build a winning puzzle, and maximized every bit of available talent they had.

Who would have thought Josh Sawyer, Andy McGuire, and Parker Joe Robinson would be vital bullpen pieces for an Omaha team? Veterans Nolan Kingham and Chase Shugart saved some of their best performances for the end of the season. Kamron Fields arrived as an outfielder that might be able to pitch, and turned into an intriguing pitcher who ranked among the team leaders, despite more walks than strikeouts, in ERA (1.82) and batting average against (.218). Matteo Bocchi, always curious about pitching, unlocked, with the help of Haig and videos of St. Louis Cardinals flamethrower Jordan Hicks, more velocity and spin, which allowed him to shut down Tennessee Tech in an Omaha-clinching game.

Was the 2018 Texas pitching staff a good one? Over the course of the entire season, probably not. However, it was an effective one, especially in the final stretch of the regular season and into postseason when its ERA dramatically improved. Following an off week, Texas had a 2.17 staff ERA over the final 12 games before the College World Series, which is much better than the 4.24 season ERA.

The exciting thing for Longhorns fans about this season’s pitching staff? It’s more talented, and it’s deeper. The concerning thing for Texas fans about this season’s pitching staff? Only one starter and projected main contributor has thrown 50.0 innings or more at Texas – Blair Henley. More talent, more stuff, more velocity, and more depth are all good things, but many of those pitchers will be freshmen or inexperienced sophomores.

So, a new challenge for Pierce and his staff: how can Texas get the most out of the depth and talent and at the same time deal with the inevitable bumpy moments that accompany a young, inexperienced pitching staff? Because there will absolutely be some bumpy moments, especially against what could be the nation’s toughest schedule.

It’s time to think outside of the box. Texas, without hesitation, is doing exactly that.

“I think you’ll find someone getting loose in the bullpen when someone comes in, and I mean that sincerely because I think we have more quality arms with less experience… You may see a guy going in as a starter and I don’t want to use the model that some professional teams are doing because to me I don’t care about their model or another collegiate team’s model it’s much more about our personnel and their abilities,” Pierce said about his pitching staff usage. “There is a lot of ability in that pen, and I’m going to give every one of them the opportunity if they deserve it.”

A look at the roster shows there are maybe four pitchers capable, right now, of pitching beyond the sixth inning in a start: Henley, Bryce Elder, Cole Quintanilla and Bocchi. Elder and Bocchi have never done it, but possess the strike-throwing ability, stuff, and delivery to potentially do it; Quintanilla was a star in the fall, but uses primarily a two-pitch mix and has yet to throw an inning at Texas. Perhaps some young arms, like Ty Madden, Coy Cobb and Jack Neely, join the list, but the odds are heavily in favor of freshmen, especially ones with a lot of size like those listed, needing a full year to reach traditional starter status.

Let’s break down the projected main contributors by what type of role, as it relates to length, they could fill:

5.0 innings or more
Henley
Elder
Bocchi
Quintanilla

5.0 innings or less
Madden
Cobb
Neely
Nico O’Donnell
Tristan Stevens

4.0 innings or less
Fields
Matt Whelan
Kolby Kubichek

3.0 innings or less
Owen Meaney

Situational relievers or backend relievers
Mason Bryant
Brandon Ivey
Donny Diaz (if healthy)
Fields
Meaney
Kubichek
Stevens

Basically, the list is a look at the longest each pitcher could realistically pitch and still be effective. Of course, many of the young pitchers in the future will develop as starters. For example, it would be a surprise if someone like Madden doesn’t reach the seventh inning or deeper in a bunch of starts later in his career. But right now, asking these freshmen to do that even occasionally is asking too much. It’s not realistic.

Let’s get back to Pierce’s point: the way to maximize depth and talent is to use all of it as effectively as possible. And when that means a lot of young or inexperienced pitchers that aren’t ready to step on the rubber and throw into the eighth inning like Kingham was, the best method is a lot of short outings. The 2019 Longhorns have a lot of pitchers capable of throwing around 4.0 innings in an individual outing, but not many capable of throwing 7.0. Heck, they only have one that’s kind of proven capable of doing it.

So, let’s say Henley starts the year well and establishes himself as the Friday guy, which is something Texas is hoping will happen. What happens beyond?

Well, you could see things like this:

4.0 to 6.0 innings - Bocchi/Elder/Quintanilla
Long relief – Neely/Cobb/Madden/Stevens/Whelan/O’Donnell
Short relief – Meaney/Bryant/Kubicheck
Situational lefty – Ivey/Chase Roberts
Closer/stopper - Fields

or

3.0 to 5.0 innings - Neely/Cobb/Madden
3.0 to 5.0 innings - Neely/Cobb/Madden
Long relief – Fields/Stevens/Whelan/Kubichek/O’Donnell
Short relief – Meaney/Bryant
Situational lefty
Closer/stopper

or

3.0 to 5.0 innings - Neely/Cobb/Madden/O’Donnell
3.0 to 5.0 innings - Neely/Cobb/Madden/Stevens/Whelan
2.0 to 3.0 innings – Stevens/Kubichek
Backend reliever

Think of Madden coming out as a starter and blowing people away for three innings. He gets into the fourth inning and starts to lose steam and control. No problem. Texas has someone like Cobb up, who comes in and misses bats for a couple innings. The freshman runs into a little trouble in the sixth inning. No problem. The Longhorns could mix and match the final three innings, they could bring in their stopper early if it’s a high-leverage situation, or they could bring in another pitcher like Stevens capable of throwing the rest of the game. Maybe someone like Stevens gets Texas to the ninth, and it just figures it out from there. Maybe Cobb struggles right away, and Texas quickly goes to another long relief arm like Neely or O’Donnell.

The most important thing in the above scenario is being aggressive with the pitcher usage to maximize effectiveness because the pitching staff is built to handle it. Plus, Texas is able to treat and use the pitching staff to do whatever it needs to win today's game and use the leftover depth the next day or two days. Are there challenges in that? Absolutely. Pierce would need to cautiously monitor using pitchers back-to-back games, or using a freshman pitcher for multiple long stints in a weekend. Plus, there’s the question that affects every pitching staff: how long does a coach stick with a pitcher once he either encounters some trouble or is throwing so well but is beyond his normal workload?

Heck, a challenge for Pierce might be just sticking with the approach because it's an uncommon one, especially in college baseball. It's one thing to say it now, but it's another to actually implement it all season. But last season he did similar late in the season as he was forced to maximize a different staff.

The combinations are nearly endless because there are about 16 pitchers (give or take a couple depending on pitchers like Beau Ridgeway possibly regaining form) capable of getting on the mound for at least one inning and putting up a zero. More importantly, there are probably 15 pitchers that can step on the mound and routinely miss bats when they execute pitches. But there aren’t many pitchers capable of doing it for a majority of the game, which is fine. Why not use a group of pitchers each game in short outings to maximize effectiveness, limit the risk of inexperience, and utilize a strength? Texas, seemingly, agrees.

While Pierce stated he isn’t using the model of “the opener” at the pro level at places like Tampa Bay, there are some similarities with a basic standpoint. What is the best way to get the most value and effectiveness out of your pitchers? And Major League Baseball has taught us that like college there aren’t many pitchers that can hold their same effectiveness when they reach the third time through the order. At that point, pitchers begin to tire, stuff begins to change, and hitters have seen the pitcher twice already.

It makes a lot of sense to limit a starter to two times through the order unless he’s capable of holding effectiveness deeper, and in college those pitchers tend to get a longer leash as the data isn’t as big of a focus, although the general idea is starting to be considered by the smarter, more progressive programs like Texas.

For the 2019 Longhorns, maximizing the roster will be a different challenge compared to the previous two seasons. However, if Pierce and his staff remain committed to their initial plan with pitcher usage, they’ll have the best chance at maximizing all the young talent and depth they possess. And that’s exciting.