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PITCHING PREVIEW: Ty Madden is THE guy, but how does the rest look?

The No. 9 Longhorns began official preseason practice January 29th and open the season Friday in Arlington at Globe Life Field against No. 7 Mississippi State. Heading into the season, we’re going to dissect and preview the Texas roster. You’ll find a balanced roster with a good blend of experience, depth, versatility and talent. Today’s pitching preview concludes our detailed look of the Texas roster position-by-position:


(Note: I think it’s important to consider the impact COVID-19, contact tracing, and protocols are having on just three weeks of preseason practice. Already, I’ve heard from scouts and industry sources how much practice reps have been affected across the country.

Consider this: if a freshman is pushing for a starting job and he’s out a week or more with contact tracing or tests positive, that almost makes it impossible he can start to begin the season. It’s an extremely valuable time for young players and because practice is limited to just three weeks, missing a week is a noticeable setback. Depth is going to be tested this season unlike anything we’ve ever seen. Well, at least initially and hopefully by the time postseason approaches we’re kicking COVID.)

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OVERVIEW: Even as the 2021 season quickly approaches, I still can’t shake the feeling of being robbed of seeing a Texas rotation of Bryce Elder, Ty Madden and Pete Hansen last season. We’ll just have to get over it. What awaits Texas and its fans in 2021 is a rotation with similar potential. Make no mistake, Elder is a significant loss, but he passed the Friday night torch to good friend Ty Madden. Madden is undoubtedly the ace heading into the season.

However, a group of starting pitcher candidates big on talent and potential enters the season a little more difficult to project than originally anticipated. Unlike last season when the Texas rotation was really, really good from the jump, this year’s group will require some time and patience as arms build up following the most unusual summer, fall and preseason ever.

FRIDAY
Ty Madden - Redshirt sophomore

If you find a preseason All-American list that doesn’t include Madden, chances are strong you shouldn’t pay attention to anything else published by that outlet. The preseason pick for Big 12 Pitcher of the Year, Madden finished 2020 with a 1.80 ERA over 25.0 innings with 26 strikeouts and just four walks.

Madden’s slider showed noticeable progress last season and his fastball profiles as a future plus-plus pitch. During the fall, Madden touched 99 MPH and I heard he did it again his first preseason outing, which was in front of 30-plus MLB scouts. That’s some major heat for a January outing. Madden’s changeup remains a work in progress and he still occasionally mixes in a curveball. If the changeup can simply become an average pitch with some control, it’ll make his devastatingly good fastball-slider combo even better. I’m all-in on Madden as a first-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, and think he’ll perform strong enough to push him into top 10 overall pick consideration. In addition to good stuff, Madden has excellent makeup and leadership ability. The next step is more consistent fastball control/command, slider shape and a usable third pitch.

SATURDAY
Pete Hansen - Redshirt freshman
TBD


Hansen finished 2020 with a 0.00 ERA over 17.0 innings with 18 strikeouts and just two walks. He looked like a future ace firing quality strikes with multiple pitches in any role, and batters hit just .158 against him. And I think the lefty can become that again… in time.

During the fall offseason, Hansen dealt with some “arm tenderness” and it sounds like he didn’t pitch at all because of that and COVID protocols. Scouts who have seen Hansen this preseason are seeing just that - a pitcher who is still shaking off a ton of rust and trying to build back up to what he was to end last season.

Maybe more so than any starting pitcher candidate on the Texas roster, fans should exercise patience with Hansen who is way behind thanks partially to things outside of his control. It might be a month and maybe longer until he’s able to throw deep into games with quality stuff like he did last year.

I listed “TBD” under Hansen because in time I think he’ll be the Saturday guy, but I’m not expecting it to open the season. I’ll list those other options, I think Tristan Stevens likely fills Saturday in the meantime, shortly, but let’s get to Sunday…

SUNDAY
Kolby Kubichek - Redshirt sophomore

After a fantastic 2019 summer in the Cape Cod League, Kubichek was poised for a 2020 breakout. And as the season ended, the righthander was starting to figure it out on the mound. He finished with a 2.79 ERA with eight strikeouts, five walks and a .211 batting average against in 9.2 innings.

When he’s right, the righty isn’t overthrowing his lively sinker, throwing a tight slider and is using his athleticism to repeat his delivery. The ability to eat innings could be especially important this season, and if Kubichek throws strikes, his stuff should allow him to pitch pretty deep into games. I’ve always been a fan of the delivery and future ability since high school and I think the wise bet is on him taking that next step to be a quality weekend starter.

POSSIBLE WEEKEND AND MIDWEEK STARTERS
Tristan Stevens - Redshirt junior
Tanner Witt - Freshman
Lucas Gordon - Freshman
Drew Shifflet - Redshirt sophomore


In my opinion, Stevens is better equipped to be a reliever, and I think that’s where he could provide the most value for the 2021 Longhorns. However, it sounds like Texas has stretched him out this offseason and preseason as it aims to have enough capable starters to handle the early-season workload with the schedule and unique challenges. His slider has always been his best offering, and he’s unafraid to use it in any count. Last year, the righthander showed impressive competitiveness on the mound as he repeatedly entered games in jams and posted a 1.50 ERA.

In the fall, I didn’t think Witt would make this list because it sounded like Texas was going to truly try the two-way route, which would make it almost impossible for him to be a weekend or midweek starter from the jump. It’s too difficult for young players to adjust to college baseball as a hitter and pitcher and do that during a pandemic. But when Pierce revealed before preseason practice began Witt and Aaron Nixon would be focusing on pitching more than hitting, my ears perked up.

It’s no secret I’m an enormous fan of Witt’s ceiling as a starter. His combination of athleticism, delivery and stuff profiles extremely well long-term. His curveball, which exceeded 3,000 RPM in high school, is worth the price of admission alone. Like most high school pitchers who were two-way players, Witt’s biggest adjustment will be developing the control and command to consistently excel at the collegiate level. But unlike most freshmen arms, his stuff affords him a greater margin for error and he’s so athletic repeating his delivery, especially for his size, isn’t the challenge it is for many other young pitchers.

Don’t expect the world from first pitch and it might take a full year for him to really figure it out. But there are going to be some really, really bright flashes initially and he might pick it up quicker than anticipated. My educated guess is he likely becomes the midweek starter, but with so many games in so few days to begin the season, he could slide into Saturday, Sunday or into the bullpen.

Gordon, another California lefty, has similar qualities to Hansen. His feel for pitching is advanced beyond his years, and he can throw quality strikes with multiple pitches. Typically, young lefties with that profile exceed expectations in college and have a quicker adjustment period. I anticipate that will be the case with him as well. He’s still building up for a starter’s workload, like many Texas arms. So, it might take time before he’s consistently pitching his way into a possible weekend rotation role. But like Witt, I could see him starting in some capacity sooner than later. Under normal circumstances on paper, I would have expected Gordon to compete with Kubichek for the Sunday role.

Shifflet, who Texas added from Angelina College, has impressed in the preseason with his strike-throwing ability. Considering he has a track record of being a starter, he’s also a candidate to be a long reliever or starter to begin the season. Ideally, I think Texas would like him in the bullpen or perhaps in a piggyback role behind a starter. Regardless, there’s always value in a pitcher capable of consistently throwing strikes.

BULLPEN OVERVIEW
The key to this puzzle is Cole Quintanilla. Like any other season, bullpen roles will take a month maybe longer to sort themselves out. So much of the early-season non-conference schedule requires programs to basically use all of their pitching depth just to fill the innings. But after Texas lost Dre Duplantier for the year to elbow surgery, the bullpen has more question marks than Texas would prefer.

As for Quintanilla, we’ve seen complete dominance and we’ve seen the opposite. It’s all about consistent strikes, mentality and stuff. If Texas gets it from the redshirt sophomore, it could swing the Texas bullpen from average to good. He’s that valuable when he’s in the zone. In the backend of games, Texas will probably first look to Dawson Merryman, who has some experience with the role. With a unique angle from the right side, Merryman finished with a 1.74 ERA last season and a .091 batting average against in 10.1 innings.

From there, roles are tough to predict, and what happens with the rotation once the schedule settles down and arms build up will likely impact the bullpen. Redshirt freshman lefty Sam Walbridge flashed big-time upside and stuff in a very, very small 2020 sample. Jared Southard is big on upside, but the control remains a question mark. If either becomes someone Texas can lean on, it would be almost as big of a lift as Quintanilla. Can Mason Bryant finally throw strikes? We’ll see. Can Justin Eckhard, Will Swope and Palmer Wenzel make an impact? They’ll probably get a chance.

Among the freshmen, I’d keep a close eye on Aaron Nixon and Caden Noah. Nixon has the competitive, strong mental makeup to challenge hitters with strikes and Noah has been mentioned multiple times by Pierce because of his curveball, pitchability, and strike-throwing. I don’t think he’ll have a noticeable role on the 2021 Longhorns, but I’m very intrigued by the long-term upside of Lebarron Johnson. Of all these bullpen arms mentioned, he might possess the highest upside; there’s just a big gap between where he is currently and what he could become in college.

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