I'm in the process of looking for sponsors for my basketball content. This program is on a red-hot trajectory right now, and pretty soon, basketball will be in the forefront of content on the site. If you're interested in sponsoring me, shoot an email to skaggsob@gmail.com.
************
After last night's impressive game between no. 2 UCLA and no. 4 Villanova, which UCLA won 86-77 in OT (if you missed it, it tipped at 10:30 CT...not great), college basketball casts its gaze upon another top-five clash between the upstart no. 5 Texas Longhorns and the top-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs. For a more in-depth breakdown of the way Gonzaga runs its offense, check out my GIF breakdown of the continuity (premium subscription required).
Gonzaga returns the majority of a team that went undefeated until the National Championship game last year, where they ran into the buzzsaw that was Baylor. They lost two of their stars, G Jalen Suggs (fifth overall to the Magic) and Corey Kispert (15th overall to the Wizards), but they managed to poach the top player from Minnesota once again (Suggs was a MN kid) in 7'1 C Chet Holmgren, who also happens to be the top overall player in the country. He had 14 points, 13 rebounds, six assists, and seven blocks on Tuesday night. His offense is really nice, but his defense is what makes him so elite.
Watch below as he blocks the shot with ease. He's got the size obviously, but also has the timing down so as not to leave his feet to early or draw a foul.
Then he does it again.
...and again.
Gonzaga returns All-American F Drew Timme as well, who is 6'10. So, they have size inside, size that Texas frankly doesn't have.
The starters will look like this:
Chet Holmgren's line is naturally is going to stand out. The kid is a weapon of the highest order. Seven blocks is absurd, no matter who the competition is, especially when you realize he had only one foul. A 7:1 block-to-foul ratio is unheard of, and dashes the hopes of getting a guy like him in foul trouble. He's clearly very disciplined, and will be a nightmare at the rim for Texas' front-court and driving guards. I talked a lot about the Unicorn in this week's "Keep Austin Beard" episode with Ari Temkin, but I'll recap some of what I said here.
Holmgren is a point-center, meaning he's enormous (height-wise; he's very slight in build) but can pass like a guard. His height is a major advantage, as he can literally see over the defense. He can also put the ball on the floor, run in transition, and shoot.
Here's an example of his turning defense into offense, with a block at the rim leading to an outlet pass for a score in transition. He throws the baseball pass perfectly to the guard in fast break and it turns into an easy two.
When asked about Holmgren on Wednesday's media availability, Beard said the following:
"There is a guy I've seen that's a seven-footer that likes to hang around the perimeter. It's when I was coaching at Texas Tech under Bobby Knight. It was a guy named Kevin Durant."
Not saying that he's going to end up like KD, but the fact that he was mentioned in the same breath as the all-time great shows you how highly Beard thinks of him. Have no doubt about it: he's going to be a major problem tonight.
My biggest concern about this game is without a doubt rebounding. Houston Baptist is not bigger than Texas, yet managed to snag - not a typo - 16 offensive rebounds in the game on Tuesday night to Texas' eight. That is extremely alarming when you consider the size differential between Gonzaga and Texas - even the Zags' guards are big.
They're going to be really missing Dylan Disu, who led the SEC in rebounding before his injury last season. For all the talent the Longhorns have, they lack a Jericho-Sims type to affect shots around the rim, just a big body that makes it difficult to score in the middle. Sims wasn't particularly great at shot-blocking either, but his physical presence was important.
My second major concern is turnovers. Timmy Allen had five, Carr had three, and the team overall had 11. While most of these were in the first half, and they tightened it up significantly in the second half, Texas needs to come out strong to stand a chance in this game. They cannot be careless with possessions or allow unforced errors to give Gonzaga a chance to go on a run, because they eat people alive in the transition game.
My predicted starting lineup is different than what they ran out against Houston Baptist. I think you have to start Mitchell here from a size perspective. Running small-ball lineups may not be that effective since Gonzaga's big men can run the floor, therefore neutralizing one of the primary advantages of running small ball in the first place.
To be perfectly honest, I would be blown away if Texas could pull this off. I think the line is probably even smaller than I would have made it. I predicted it would be 7-7.5. It opened up at 8.5 but the money on Texas forced it down to 7.5, which is where it sits now. I think Gonzaga covers.
However, I don't think this will be something to have a meltdown over if you're a Texas basketball fan. If they get Madison-Square-Gardened like the black-jersey game against Duke in 2005, that would be one thing. I think Gonzaga probably wins by 10ish. This is also a completely different game than would be played in March, where I think Texas could not only compete, but possibly win. It's just going to take some time to gel and make it a complete unit. I'm not worried about what happens as long as they stay healthy and give good effort.
They just need to prove to themselves that they belong.
Predicted score:
75-64 Gonzaga.
@KeenanWomack_OB
