SEASON PREVIEW: Predictions, pitching and hitting breakdowns, more
Can baseball be your valentine?
The Longhorns hope to warm hearts with their play this season after last season’s, well, they don’t want to talk about last season anymore, and I don’t blame them. Hopefully, we won’t have to either. Texas begins its revitalization campaign tonight at Rice. There aren’t many ways better to start the baseball season with Texas and Rice on the same field.
SCHEDULE (No TV coverage; stream available via CUSA/Rice Athletics website)
FRIDAY (7 p.m.) - Jr. RHP Bryce Elder (2-4, 2.93) vs. Rice Jr. RHP Alex DeLeon (N/A)
SATURDAY (5 p.m.) – So. RHP Ty Madden (4-1, 3.40) vs. Rice So. RHP Blake Brogdon (0-0, 27.00)
SUNDAY (1 p.m.) – So. Coy Cobb (1-3, 3.45) vs. Rice TBA
Before we have some fun with season predictions, I implore you to read our detailed previews if you haven’t already, and add a couple of podcasts to your listening list as well.
PITCHING PREVIEW
PITCHING PREVIEW PODCAST
HITTING PREVIEW
HITTING PREVIEW PODCAST
And also before we have some fun with season predictions, we're happy to say our Texas Baseball coverage this season will be brought to you by one of UT's best hitters all-time, Jordan Danks.
A standout at Round Rock High School and career .325 hitter at Texas, Danks played in 184 games at the MLB level. Now, Danks is crushing pitches at Compass Realty in the Austin area as a member of the highly successful Speed Team. Don't hesitate to reach out to Danks for any of your real estate needs, and in the near future we'll announce opportunities to spend your pregames tailgating at UFCU Disch-Falk Field with Danks and his team.
--- Alright, let’s get to some season predictions, beginning with a projected lineup:
CF – Duke Ellis
DH – Douglas Hodo III
LF – Eric Kennedy
RF – Austin Todd
1B – Zach Zubia
C – DJ Petrinsky
2B – Brenden Dixon
3B – Murphy Stehly
SS – Trey Faltine
I’m very confident about the nine in the lineup. I just don’t know where they all end up. Todd, Zubia, and Kennedy should make up the heart of the order. Ideally, Texas probably wants to keep the lefthanded bats in the lineup from hitting back-to-back in order to diminish the impact of a situational lefty from the bullpen, although Rice has just three lefties and they either have barely any experience or none at all.
Obviously, given his past at Texas, Ellis could hit at the very top of the lineup, and at the bottom of it, and even though he’s a freshman, I think the same could be said about Faltine too. The benefit of Ellis up top is he’s probably the most likely guy on the team to see at least five pitches in an at-bat.
Because of Zubia changing his body this offseason and winning the first base job, it opens the designated hitter to be maximized. Texas feels very good about its group of four main outfielders and could choose to rotate in the outfield to keep legs fresh while using the DH to keep all four bats in the lineup. As Pierce said yesterday, though, the plan is for freshman Silas Ardoin to catch Ty Madden on Saturday, which means Petrinsky could be in the DH spot if he’s not catching. On paper, it’s a good problem for Texas to have.
--- As you can see above, we already know the starting rotation for the weekend. Expect Kolby Kubichek and Pete Hansen to compete for weekend rotation spots as well. Kubichek returned to the mound after an ankle sprain, and Hansen is scheduled to be a midweek starter, although it’s a tad unclear how far along he is after Pierce announced the freshman lefty had mono when practice opened three weeks ago.
Interestingly, Cole Quintanilla was mentioned by Pierce when discussing starters. He could be in the bullpen late in games or could be stretched out as a starter. With a new slider and another year removed from Tommy John surgery, Quintanilla is poised to build on last season.
--- In the bullpen, Kam Fields, Mason Bryant, and Dawson Merryman should get some of the first looks late in games. Texas seems quietly optimistic about what its bullpen could become because of the depth and stuff, and is able to matchup late because of the inclusion of lefties like Sam Walbridge and even a changeup-heavy righty Owen Meaney, who profiles almost like a lefty because of his stuff.
--- Best hitter this season…
Austin Todd
It’s no secret I’ve long been a fan of Todd’s hitting tools, and it’s also no secret he’s battled injuries throughout his entire career. He had an excellent preseason, changed his body, and if good health is finally on his side, he has a chance for a big season.
Next on the list: Eric Kennedy, Zach Zubia, Douglas Hodo III
--- Most homers this season…
Zach Zubia
If a more agile and athletic Zubia can tap into his plus-plus raw power more, he should hit 10 or more homers this season. A key for Zubia will be aggressively attacking pitches he can drive in any count, and also generating more lift and backspin instead of so many topspin liners that sizzle and sink into an outfielder’s glove.
Next on the list: DJ Petrinsky, Brenden Dixon, Austin Todd
--- Highest on base percentage this season…
Duke Ellis
No one sees more pitches than Ellis, and when he’s locked in, he competes in the box better than anyone on the roster.
Next on the list: Zach Zubia, Austin Todd, Eric Kennedy
--- Most stolen bases this season…
Duke Ellis
A perfect 17-of-17 last season, Ellis could break 20 steals this season, especially because Texas should play more games this season. An efficient basestealer, Ellis could see his on base percentage climb with more balls in play and an improved strikeout rate.
Next on the list: Eric Kennedy, Douglas Hodo III
--- Best ERA for a starting pitcher this season…
Bryce Elder
Elder beating his 2.93 ERA from 2019 is a pretty good bet. If you haven’t figured it out by now, he’s really good, and could have an All-American-type season.
Next on the list: Ty Madden, Pete Hansen
--- Most strikeouts by a starting pitcher this season…
Bryce Elder
He’s going to throw a lot of quality innings and miss a lot of bats. Elder surpassing last year’s total of 86 is a safe bet, and he’ll more confidently dip into his full arsenal of pitches when he needs to.
Next on list: Ty Madden
--- Best ERA by a reliever this season… (minimum 25.0 innings pitched)
Kam Fields
Perhaps no one is happier about UT’s improved catching situation than Fields, who Pierce says is now focusing on just pitching and not hitting too. I think you’ll notice an improved arm path for Fields to increase strike-throwing. A plus-plus athlete on the mound, Fields is poised to put it all together with a good season.
Next on the list: Cole Quintanilla (assuming he settles in as a reliever), Sam Walbridge, Andre Dulplantier II
--- Random predictions…
Elder pitches himself into day one of the 2020 MLB Draft and will be Big 12 Pitcher of the Year.
The Longhorns will finish the season with a team ERA better than 4.00 and a team slash line on offense of .265/.365/.380 or better.
Trey Faltine will be very up-and-down early, particularly on defense, but his strong mental makeup and leadership intangibles will make him one of the fan base’s favorite players by end of the season because of his promising bright future, energy, and athleticism.
If you don’t expect the world from him, you’ll be presently surprised with the steadiness Murphy Stehly provides offensively and defensively.
Going way out on a limb here: the Texas catching will be much, much, much better than last season, and don’t be surprised if you like how Peyton Powell swings the bat when he gets an occasional opportunity.
There will be four Longhorns with 10 or more steals, five or more homers and three pitchers with 60 or more strikeouts.
In a game this season, Troy Tulowitzki will be ejected. David Pierce being tossed at least once is a given.
During an outing when the temperature warms, Ty Madden will hit 98 MPH or higher on the radar gun.
Predicted season record: 42-23
Predicted Big 12 finish: Third
If everything goes right for the Longhorns, they could win the Big 12, which won’t be as strong as it was in 2018, and winning the league would assure Texas of hosting a regional. If Texas hosts a regional, an Omaha trip is possible because hosting a regional at a place like Texas is a big advantage. Anything close to a repeat of last season would surprise me.
While this isn’t a loaded Texas roster and lacks star power, it is more talented, and deeper than last season. I think it should have much better player leadership, and a head coach who better understands how to handle a Texas team when it does encounter a slump, which undoubtedly happens to almost every team in college baseball.
And don't underestimate the impact Troy Tulowitzki will have on the team's competitiveness; it might not show up dramatically in the stats, but it could impact what matters most - wins. Players love Philip Miller, who connects with them very well; Sean Allen is already making a noticeable impact with pitchers, and this coaching staff is better positioned to maximize the roster.
Since we don’t quite know how Texas will perform offensively and how the bullpen forms, it’s difficult to predict Texas to win the league and host a regional, although with a strong non-conference performance a third-place finish in the Big 12 could put it in the hosting mix.
By the end of the season, Pierce’s teams are usually playing their best baseball and building towards being maximized. I think that’s likely to again happen, like 2018 and 2017, and see Texas winning a regional because of its pitching depth before losing in a super regional.
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