Texas finished the regular season and post-conference tournament with a record of 21-11. Though it was a 20-win season, Texas finished just 1-5 against the top three teams in the conference en route to a disappointing result when contrasted with preseason expectations. Their wins are inflated by a notoriously weak out-of-conference slate, but they did finish with a winning conference record in the best conference in basketball, for what it's worth.
It's fair to assume that Texas will land anywhere from a five-seed to a seven-seed, most likely landing in the middle with a six-seed. Based on this information, here are a few of the possible matchups they could have in the first round of the tourney:
Memphis, Texas A&M, South Dakota State, Indiana, Miami FL, Loyola-Chicago.
Memphis
Drawing Memphis in the first round is maybe the worst possible matchup for Texas. I'll quote Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) here:
"Since February 1, Memphis has both a top-10 offense AND top-10 defense in college basketball, per @totally_t_bomb's [Bart Torvik's] metrics. It’s really hard to overemphasize how different this team is from the one that had Emoni Bates at the start of the year. Genuine second weekend threat."
Not only this, but they also possess a legitimate lottery player in Jalen Duren, who may be the best center not named Chet Holmgren available in the upcoming NBA Draft. Duren, who is 6'10, averages 12.1 points and eight rebounds per game. He is squarely in the top 16 picks in nearly every draft projection out there. He's also a terrible matchup for Texas' front court, as they lack consistent inside presence and size. Christian Bishop can be fantastic, but he's still just 6'7. Duren has the potential to eat them alive.
Luckily, if you're a Texas fan, Memphis has been seen as high as an eight-seed, like in ESPN's bracketology, so the chances this happens are thinner than others, but I thought I'd mention it in case it does happen.
Texas A&M
Texas A&M is another one of the hottest teams in the nation, having beaten three ranked teams in the last 11 days, including fourth-ranked Auburn and 14th-ranked Arkansas (Alabama is the third, who was ranked 25th at the time of the Aggies' victory). Not only did they beat Auburn, they waxed Arkansas 82-64 yesterday with a chance to earn another ranked win against Tennessee today in the SEC Championship Game.
Led on offense by guards Quenton Jackson (14.6 PPG) and Tyrece Radford (10.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG), as well as forward Henry Coleman (11.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG), A&M over their seven-game win streak has averaged 79 points per game behind offense from these three. Against Arkansas, Jackson was the leading scorer, rebounder, and assist man. He's the type of guy that can take over a game.
Texas fans, if they want to avoid seeing A&M in the tournament, should root for Tennessee to win today in the SEC title game, as the Aggies may not make the field if they don't win.
I'm sure rooting against A&M will be really difficult for you guys.
South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits of South Dakota State are an additional team on fire at the moment. Having won their conference regular season and conference tournament, they are one of three teams in the country with 30 wins (Arizona, Murray State). They also went undefeated in conference (18-0), beating North Dakota State for the Summit League title, 75-69, and haven't lost since December 15th (21-0).
They have three really good offensive players in Douglas Wilson (16.1 PPG), Noah Freidell (14.2 PPG), and do-it-all 6'6 guard Baylor Scheierman (16.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.6 APG), a bonafide star who was the Summit League's player of the year. Scheierman also shoots a white-hot 47% from beyond the arc and is a legitimate NBA-caliber prospect with his size, shooting ability, and versatility. He's a mid-major All-American and one of the best players Texas could face early on.
Indiana
Indiana is another team they could face in the first round the tourney. They had a big win over top-overall conference seed Illinois that got them into the NCAAs, behind the abilities of all-American candidate Trayce Jackson-Davis. The 6'9 forward also had 31 against three-seed Iowa and Keegan Murray in their narrow loss in the Big 10 Tournament semi-finals, 80-77. He averages 17.7 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, and has been an absolute problem all season for teams trying to guard him.
They also get scoring from guard Xavier Johnson (12.3 PPG) and 6'8 forward Race Thompson (11.5 PPG). They were very hit or miss throughout the season, including a five-game losing streak from February 5th to February 21st. They were also 2-7 in their last nine to end the regular season before adding wins against Michigan and Illinois in the Big 10 Tournament.
Miami FL
The Hurricanes were a four-seed in the tournament for the particularly weak ACC this year, and other than beating an overrated Duke team on January 8th, don't have a ton of impressive wins (only other notable wins are North Carolina and Virginia Tech). At 23-10 on the year, with only two ranked games in which they went 1-1 (the loss was by 30 points to Alabama in December), Miami is firmly on the bubble, but are still a threat to get into the field.
Kameron McGusty, the former Oklahoma Sooner from Katy-Seven Lakes, is their leading scorer with 17.6 points per game, followed by Isaiah Wong (15.2 PPG), Charlie Moore (12.6 PPG), and Jordan Miller (10.6 PPG). Charlie Moore is also the leading distributor with 4.5 assists per game to just two turnovers.
This would be a more ideal matchup for the Longhorns, as Miami plays at a slower pace as well. Coach Jim Larranaga, known partially for his Final Four run with George Mason, has his team in the 250 range in pace of play in the country. Texas would be better off playing Miami than playing South Dakota State, Memphis, or Texas A&M.
Loyola-Chicago
The Ramblers, after finding great tournament success under Porter Moser, including a Final Four appearance in 2017-2018, are back in the NCAA Tournament again. New head coach Drew Valentine has done a great job in his first season, leading Loyola to a 25-7 season in the Missouri Valley Conference. A balanced scoring attack led by Lucas Williamson (14 PPG) netted the Ramblers another Arch Madness conference tournament title despite their being a four-seed. They topped Drake, 64-58, in the title game. Guard Braden Norris (10.3 PPG) is a sharpshooter at 43.1% from three, as well as leading the team in assists with nearly four per game.
Though their players from the Final Four run are long gone, there is a winning pedigree at Loyola-Chicago that can't be discounted. Drew Valentine was an assistant at Loyola during that run in 2017-2018, so he knows what competing at a high level looks like first hand. This is a scrappy team that can pull a first-round upset if Texas isn't careful.