Texas Baseball Lineup Projection: The Pitchers
A trait of the new Texas coaching staff that projects positively is its versatility and its chemistry. Coaches, including David Pierce, have a background in all areas of the game, and when Texas’ new staff made its transition, roles didn't change.
However, what Pierce is probably best known for is the work he's done with pitchers, specifically during his time at Rice when the Owls were one of the giants of college baseball and routinely developed top arms. When Pierce arrived in Austin, he inherited a group of talented arms that needed a developmental touch. In the fall, we saw pitchers using new pitches, a freshman that looked rotation-ready immediately, and more.
“There’s no doubt,” said Pierce during Texas’ Media Day about there being competition for rotation spots. “We’ve got five to six guys competing for starting roles right now.”
Indeed the Longhorns do. Let’s look at the options, and project who fits where:
OB’s pick for Friday starter: Morgan Cooper (redshirt junior)
Besides Michael Cantu at catcher, projecting Cooper as Texas’ Friday night guy is as easy as it gets. Now over two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Cooper has regained the feel for his secondary pitches, and his velocity has reached as high as 97 MPH.
In the fall, Texas suggested to Cooper the addition of a hard slider, which could compliment his curveball and changeup and give the righthander a potential wipeout pitch, especially against righthanders. The immediate results were very impressive. Not only has Cooper thrown that pitch in the mid-80’s, but the righty throws it with fastball arm action which when combined with the grip led to flashes as a plus pitch thanks to the late, sharp action and velocity. Plus, Cooper is throwing his fastball on a better plane with a slightly tweaked delivery that allows him to get on top of the baseball more and drive it down, using his frame and arm action to his advantage.
With the addition of the slider, Cooper now has an impressive four-pitch mix, and three of those pitches (fastball, slider, changeup) can be or flash as plus offerings at times with an average to above-average curveball. If you think that arsenal reads like that of a future first-round pick, you’re right. It does.
Of course, we’ll have to see how Cooper’s stuff translates in games, but he was as dominant as possible in the fall and has followed that up with a terrific preseason, setting the stage for a possible All-American-type of season.
OB’s picks for starters behind Cooper: Nolan Kingham (sophomore), Blair Henley (freshman), Kyle Johnston (junior)
Similar to Cooper’s addition of the slider, Texas changed the grip of Kingham’s breaking ball, which led to him throwing a slider as well. Too often last season Kingham’s breaking ball bounced between a soft curve, a slurve, and a slider, and while that’s still an issue at times, the new grip sparked the development of what could be an above-average, strikeout pitch to compliment a changeup that flashes as plus and a fastball that can reach 97 MPH.
GO INSIDE THE 40 ACRES: KETCH'S 10 THOUGHTS FROM THE WEEKEND
Kingham will be most effective if he doesn’t try to overthrow, and simply lets the fastball work in the 91-95 MPH range with its natural late life thanks to his arm action and 6-3 frame. He could make a huge jump and turn into one of the Big 12’s better starters as a sophomore, or he could bounce in-and-out of the rotation if the delivery and slider become inconsistent.
Henley emerged as one of the stars of the fall session. The 6-3, 200-pound righthander showed control, command, mental makeup, and the ability to pitch well beyond his years. What helps too is the command of a 90-93 MPH fastball (he held that velocity deep into his Fall World Series outing), a sharp slider that touched 85 MPH in the fall, and a changeup with late, fading arm-side action. But what was most impressive was Henley’s presence on the mound, and his lack of fear – he threw any pitch in any count, including righty-on-righty changeups.
Until a freshman performs in actual games it's impossible to know for certain how he will perform. However, Henley's mental traits shown in the fall suggest strongly that he won't be bothered by actual game moments.
Johnston is the wildcard among the Texas pitching staff. If Pierce and pitching coach Phil Haig can get him to consistently throw strikes and repeat his delivery, the potential is there for a great season. However, as Texas fans have seen throughout his first two years, Johnston hasn’t been able to shake the control issues, which tend to make his starts short and ability to pitch out of the bullpen difficult to manage.
From what we heard last week, Johnston, who didn’t pitch in the fall at the advice of the Texas staff because of how many innings he threw in the summer, was throwing sliders that touched 89 MPH. Yes, you read that right.
The stuff is there. Can he throw strikes? So far, it sounds like he’s been impressive enough to earn one of the first looks in the rotation. Remember, this is a pitcher that over his career has a 3.16 ERA, .219 batting average against, and 105 strikeouts in 108.1 innings. But he also has 70 career walks, which translates to 5.82 per nine innings.
Pitchers in the mix for rotation spots, and possible Tuesday starters or bullpen options: Connor Mayes (junior), Nick Kennedy (sophomore), Beau Ridgeway (sophomore)
During his first two seasons, there have been times when Mayes performed like a Friday night starter. In his last start of the 2016 season against TCU in the Big 12 Tournament, Mayes tossed 6.0 innings and gave up one run on six hits and punched out six without issuing a walk. Other times in his career, he’s bounced in-and-out of roles while lacking effectiveness and confidence.
Right now, Mayes seems like an ideal Tuesday starter because it would eventually, when Texas’ schedule normalizes to three weekend games instead of four, give Texas a bullpen option if needed on weekends. Plus, Pierce has spoken often about the importance of winning Tuesday games, and a pitcher like Mayes is often going to be better than whoever the opposition is trotting to the mound. All that being said, the righthander could easily pitch his way into the weekend rotation too.
Lefthander Nick Kennedy might be the most intriguing arm on the roster not named “Cooper.” A very impressive athlete with good strength and outstanding arm action, there were innings this fall when Kennedy completely dominated hitters with a low-90’s fastball and sharp slider. There were also innings when Kennedy tried to light up the radar gun instead of pitch, which led to control issues, stuff that lacked bite and life, and poor results.
If Kennedy can learn to be okay throwing an easy, repeatable 88-92 MPH fastball and throw the slider and change with that same arm-action, he could be a real weapon. But if he continues to try to throw 94-95 MPH, the lefty is going to be up-and-down and likely a volatile bullpen option.
Ridgeway is a sinker-slider strike-thrower that should be able to give Texas a long relief and short relief option as well as a possible Tuesday starter. However, the sophomore does need to progress; at times, the sinker turns soft and the slider’s spin rate decreases, which leads to a flat offering. When he’s right, the groundballs will follow and the strikes will be plentiful.
OB’s pick for stopper out of the bullpen: Chase Shugart (sophomore)
(Note: Pierce refers to his closer as a stopper because he uses more than one player in that role, and treats his best bullpen arms late in games as pitchers that can enter games at any moment instead of just the ninth inning.)
GO INSIDE THE 40 ACRES: TOM HERMAN AT THE LONE STAR COACHING CLINIC AND THE 3-2-1
After appearing in 32 games as a freshman, and completing multiple back-to-back and more than one-inning outings, Texas wisely rested Shugart this fall. In what was an up-and-down freshman season, Shugart showed the ability, mentality, and stuff to shut teams down late in games. But he also was hit around some too and dealt with control issues.
Still, he’s Texas’ best option here, and as a sophomore, his appearances will likely be managed better under a new staff that has more depth to work with.
Pitchers that could be an option in the stopper role: Beau O’Hara (sophomore), TBD
O’Hara, a righthander, was originally committed to Tulane, but the Blinn College transfer followed Pierce to Texas. He struck out more than one batter per inning as a freshman, and has the stuff that translates to an end-of-game-type of arm.
Who else could emerge as a stopper? That depends on how the rotation shakes out.
Other bullpen arms: Kevin Roliard (freshman), Jon Malmin (senior), Blake Wellmann (sophomore), Jake McKenzie (junior), Tyler Schimpf (redshirt sophomore), Parker Joe Robinson (redshirt sophomore)
Malmin could be one of the only lefthanded bullpen options Texas has. Josh Sawyer wasn’t dressed out or participating in practice when Texas opening its preseason camp, and he had surgery this offseason after barely pitching last year. Wellmann and McKenzie are both capable of entering a game and throwing strikes, although the stuff won’t blow anyone away right now. Roliard is a hard-throwing freshman that could emerge over time.