Today, Texas is in Fort Worth for a battle with TCU. The Horned Frogs are led by a G Mike Miles in scoring, who is top five in the conference in points per game at 15.5. TCU is 13-3 overall and 3-1 in conference, the lone loss coming to Baylor by 12 at home. They have wins over Kansas State on the road, 60-57, Oklahoma at home, 59-58, and Iowa State on the road, 59-44.
The Horned Frogs are another team that plays really tight defense, giving up just 60.7 PPG (good for 18th in the NCAA) and forcing 14.1 turnovers. They play a lot like Texas does, meaning they don't give up a lot, but struggle scoring as well. They shoot 31.1% from three, which is 299th in the nation out of 358 teams. They struggle with general offensive efficiency, as they shoot just 42.9% from the field overall, which is 252nd in the country. Despite this, they're top 50 in KenPom at 48th, mainly because they're 15th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. As if I haven't made it obvious enough, this is going to be a bare-knuckle brawl.
Here's TCU's starting lineup.
Texas comes into this game after beating Oklahoma State, 56-51, at home. It was a really ugly game, as is kind of the norm with many Big 12 teams, who are cannibalizing themselves so that no one ends up with a good seed. Texas sits at 4-3 in conference right now, but after this TCU game, which is no joke in itself, the Longhorns have to deal with five-straight ranked games: versus no. 18 Tennessee, at no. 13 Texas Tech, versus no. 23 Iowa State, versus no. 5 Kansas, and then wrap it up with no. 4 Baylor on the road. This oft-discussed stretch of games is going to define the season for Texas.
Here is the Longhorns' starting lineup.
What Texas needs to do to secure the victory tonight:
• Prevent offensive rebounds.
TCU is second in the nation in offensive rebounds at 14.5 per game, and have one of the best rebounders in the conference in Emmanuel Miller, who's at 7.2 per game right now. They have six guys on the team averaging four or more rebounds per game, so it's by committee as well. If Texas wants to win this game, they're going to have to prevent second-chance points, which is how TCU has beaten teams all year long. This means Disu should be playing more minutes, and that Texas should stick with a three-forward lineup to avoid being outsized.
• Keep Mike Miles at bay.
Miles is TCU's leading scorer and one of the premier scorers in the league, but isn't particularly efficient with his scoring, shooting 36.7% from the field and 31.2% from three. If they can make sure that he doesn't have a Gabe-Kalscheur-type standout performance where he shoots 50% from three, they have a decent chance at containing the TCU offense. He's also a high-level assist guy, however, so keeping the ball out of his hands in general should be of the utmost importance. Ball pressure and denial will have to be emphasized.
• Don't turn the ball over 20 times.
Duh. They're not going to win games with 20 turnovers, despite what they were able to do against Oklahoma State. Taking care of the ball is going to be the thing that defines their season in the next two weeks. They need to especially cut down on live-ball turnovers that lead to points on the other end. If they can do that, they have a much better shot at winning these road games.
• Get TCU in foul trouble early.
Texas needs all of the help possible to get points against this defense, and ideally, they will get some from the FT line. Given TCU's defensive prowess, any kind of scoring is going to be key – getting into the bonus would be immensely helpful in keeping this game close enough to pull out at the end. This means attacking the paint and being aggressive, trying to get to the rack and drawing contact. Guard play will be key here.
Prediction:
ML: Texas (-143)
Spread: TCU +2.5
O/U: under 122.5
