Tom Herman was right about the defense, but the offense... uh-oh
1) It's happening again...
Tom Herman was right about defense. It improved versus Baylor. More on that in last night’s Three Things After a Rewatch because there is a bigger issue. Much bigger.
Heading into the season, everyone agreed: The Longhorns were going to go as Sam Ehlinger and the offense, under new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich, went. Okay, maybe not everyone, but you get the point. Ehlinger entered the season as the all-time leader in total yardage among active players and as or more experienced than any quarterback in the country. Texas finished No. 13 in FEI offense last season and No. 10 in S&P+ offense. This wasn’t a case of being overserved burnt orange Kool-Aid. The reasons for optimism were real.
Maybe this is very on brand for Texas. The moment the defense shows growth, the offense has the rhythm of an overserved groomsman on a wedding dance floor. But UT wishes it had his confidence. The Longhorns better find that confidence and some rhythm quickly because if they’re going to regroup and play their way into the Big 12 title picture, they have to stop this slide on offense before it’s too late. And too late might be a loss weekend since the lack of total team performances has eliminated almost all UT’s margin for error.
The Texas offense did rate very well statistically last season, and does currently, although last season is still baked into those advanced metrics. But during the heart of 2019 Big 12 play, it lost its way and its quarterback lost a lot of his confidence, comfort, and rhythm. Of Ehlinger’s games last season, only one of his top seven passer ratings came after the first four games and before the final two (vs. Texas Tech and the bowl game against Utah). When it was time to win the league, the Texas offense and its quarterback came up short for a multitude of reasons.
Remind you of anything very recently?
Ehlinger lacked comfort and confidence in the pocket against Baylor and the offense had an unsavory vanilla taste. The Longhorns tried to convince themselves they were a better running team by calling 24 more runs, many of them inefficient, than passes despite Baylor blowing coverage assignments multiple times. Remember, this comes after a performance against an awful Oklahoma secondary and average defense that was wretched for three-and-a-half quarters until Ehlinger did a bunch of Ehlinger-in-the-Cotton-Bowl things. Also remember 72 of Ehlinger’s 270 passing yards came on a blown coverage freeing Tarik Black, which helped skew the quarterback’s passer rating.
So, here we are again. The Longhorns have a new offensive coordinator, but they’re experiencing some of the same issues. Why aren’t they improving? They better correct their issues before it’s too late.
2) The concerning trend for Ehlinger…
Entering the 2020 season, Ehlinger was coming off his best statistical season, according to Pro Football Focus, and his career arch suggested another step forward as a senior.
EHLINGER OVERALL OFFENSE GRADE (PFF)
2019: 90.1
2018: 85.7
2017: 66.4
EHLINGER PASSING GRADE (PFF)
2019: 86.9
2018: 81.2
2017: 64.6
His rushing grades in 2018 and 2019 were almost identical, which makes sense given his stats and usage. For Ehlinger, the 2020 season was all about becoming a more consistent passer in a more consistent offense. Yurcich and Herman were tasked with unlocking Ehlinger’s consistency and confidence by putting him in the best, most comfortable position to excel as part of an improved offense.
After five games, that vision is slipping away...
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