Who will win the Big XII? (via Seth Fowler Real Estate)

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After this weekend's slate of games, the top of the Big XII totem pole contains just two teams: Texas (10-4, 21-6) and defending national champion Kansas (10-4, 22-5). In the last week, (6) Texas lost to Texas Tech on the road in Lubbock before barely topping last-place Oklahoma at home.

Texas has looked a bit dicey as of late, but you just have to consider the difficulty of playing against teams this physical twice a week. It's a bit like the mosh pit at my senior prom that resulted in a broken foot (they've since banned the playing of "Sandstorm" by Darude due to this incident – shouts out to Zack).

Every game is an absolute grind, a World-War-I affair in the trenches where any team can get hot and beat you.

Winning this conference's regular-season title would be a massive achievement for the Longhorns, who haven't done so since their highly talented 2007-2008 team, who lost in the Elite Eight to Memphis, the eventual national runners up. Since that season, Texas has had little success in the NCAA Tournament; they have yet to return to the Sweet 16 in nearly 15 seasons.

Initially, Texas' former head coach seemed to be the one who could rally a team to the last weekend of the tournament; unfortunately, some really bad decision making (to really understate it) ended his term and brought about the coaching tenure of one Rodney Terry, who is a National Coach of the Year candidate after doing a bang-up job so far with this team.

The obvious way to ensure a Big XII regular season title if you're Texas is to win out, which of course is extremely unlikely given this sadistic stretch of games to end the season:

• vs. (19) Iowa State

• @ (9) Baylor

• @ (22) TCU

• vs. (5) Kansas

Getting out of there at 2-2 is an optimistic take with some healthy skepticism sprinkled in. The goal is clear: they absolutely have to beat Iowa State on Tuesday night to have any shot at the conference championship.

Winning at Baylor is pretty unlikely since the return of Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua to the Bears' lineup after his season-ending knee injury (coincidentally against Texas) last year. Truly glad to see his return to health – he seems like an excellent person from what I've read and heard.

However, 2-2 doesn't win the conference very likely; going 3-1 in those games is a major task. The loss to Texas Tech really hurt them in the conference standings, which are posted below.

(NOTE: GOOD AS END OF SUNDAY, FEB 19).

I think that loss probably sealed their fate unfortunately, but the resiliency of this team has surprised me time and time again, so maybe they have the fire to make a last push and compete for the title. They're going to need to play out of their minds for the next four games if they want it badly enough.

• @ (22) TCU

• vs. West Virginia

• vs. Texas Tech

• @ (5) Texas

Kansas is without a doubt in the best position in conference to win the regular-season trophy, given the soft middle of the schedule at home against two of the lower-level teams in the Big XII.

I'd say it's pretty likely that Kansas sweeps the first three games, although they did already lose to TCU – at home – by 23. With tough losses by both Texas, Kansas, and Baylor, there is a very real possibility that the game between the Longhorns and Jayhawks on March 4th at the Moody Center could be for conference supremacy. But, obviously, Texas has to do its part for this to even matter.

Kansas boasts arguably the best player in the conference in forward Jalen Wilson, and another one of the best forwards in the conference in freshman Gradey Dick. They can beat you in multiple ways because of the fact that Bill Self is, may I say it? Do I have permission?

Ok. Bill Self is the best coach in college basketball, and while last season put him over the top and into the upper echelon of great hoops coaches, he was still always there. His conference home record is nearly statistically anomalous. He just finds ways to win no matter what players her rolls out there. That team comes to play.

That's a gigantic word salad for "Kansas is the best team in the conference, again."

• @ (12) Kansas State

• vs. (6) Texas

• @ Oklahoma State

• vs. (19) Iowa State

Similar to Texas' situation, Baylor finds itself with a very difficult stretch of games to end the year. Baylor could go 4-0 here or they could go 1-3. It's going to depend on which Baylor team shows up during the last stretch of conference play.

If I'm a bettor, I'm bullish on Baylor right now. They're 4-1 in their last five, the singular loss coming on the road at Kansas. Now, that's not to say I'm bullish on Baylor's winning the Big XII regular-season title. But I do think they have a good shot at winning the conference tourney and making a deep run into March with their guard play.

As always, Baylor's guards run the show, with three legitimately elite talents on the perimeter in Keyonte George, Adam Flagler, and LJ Cryer, who are combining for 47.5 points per game this season. That is outrageous in any conference, let alone this one. They have probably the best back court in the country; I could see people equating the two, but to find a guards group that is outright better is an effort in futility.

Clearly, the bettors agree – Kansas is the easy favorite at the moment to win the conference, especially after nearly 20-piecing Baylor, 87-71, on Saturday. Texas and Baylor are tied currently with +250 odds, though after their game in Waco, this may look different.

If I was a math guy (I'm not), I would give the percentages to win at about this:

• Kansas, 60%

• Baylor 25%

• Texas 15%

The reason for the discrepancy between Baylor and Texas is that I think Baylor will probably beat Texas in Waco, which then leaves them tied. Given the (albeit very slightly) easier schedule after that for the Bears, it will probably give them the edge in. It really just depends on whom you'd rather play:

I think the order in which I posted these teams by percentage are probably how the conference will shake out.

So I guess that answers my question, "who will win the conference this season?" Kansas seems like the easy bet because of their light slate.

But there is a lot of game time left.