Why MLB teams loved Tanner Witt and five other impact UT signees

Are the Longhorns truly on a path back towards consistently competing for the Big 12 title with Omaha caliber rosters? It sure does look and feel that way on paper, and the list of possible impact freshmen extends beyond some of the heavily discussed names.

Leading up to and during the Major League Baseball Draft, Texas fans became quite familiar with the names of five signees: Jared Kelley, Carson Tucker, Petey Halpin, Jared Jones, and Tanner Witt. If the Longhorns were able to get one of five on campus, the draft would be considered a win. For a change, the Longhorns can claim a victory against the MLB Draft.

MLB DRAFT RECAP

While some of you might shrug your shoulders at the thought of just one of five top signees making it to campus, I’m here to tell you Texas getting Witt on the Forty Acres is an enormous deal. This is why top college teams always take chances on spending a little time recruiting the top players and signing them even if there is a risk they never arrive. Because if one shows up, he can dramatically impact the program for years to come.

And while I think the shortened baseball led to an increased chance Halpin and Tucker would be drafted and signed because they were in heavily scouted areas and performed very well, it probably saved Texas from losing Witt. Some teams had the future Longhorn rated inside the top 20 overall picks despite a somewhat limited pitching background. A true two-way talent capable of playing the infield and hitting at a high level in college, Witt recently began to focus more intensely on pitching, and the results are extremely promising.

If the season played out, there isn’t a doubt in my mind he would have been firmly in the mix as the second-best prep arm (Mick Abel, the top high school pitcher, was selected 15th overall by the Phillies) available, and would have been picked around the $3 million bonus range. The limited pitching background would have been tough to overlook, especially because so much of the draft process is risk assessment in addition to talent evaluation and projection.

But keep in mind the Rays selected prep righthander Nick Bitsko 24th overall after the reclassified into the 2020 class. Bitsko threw just three competitive innings for scouts to see, and they came during a summer showcase tournament. Despite the limited viewing, Bitsko helped himself by using a warehouse as his personal training ground, and the scouting world started to buzz once his Trackman/Rapsodo data was published. With the data, teams could take every little thing – shape, spin, spin efficiency, break, velocity, etc. - about his stuff and compare it to other pitchers. What the computer then told teams was his stuff was almost identical to some of the top pitchers in Major League Baseball.

This is the new norm in Major League Baseball: Many teams rely heavily on computer models to make draft picks. And when the models were given Witt’s scouting report and his stuff, they fell in love despite the limited track record on the mound. Why?

Witt has yet to turn 18-years-old; he’s a plus athlete with a background as a promising infielder prospect, which will allow him to better repeat his delivery; he’s not even close to being maxed out physically, and is still new to pitching, relatively speaking; he already throws in the low 90’s consistently with the ability to touch the mid 90’s; Witt’s father was selected in the first round in 1994, played in the big leagues, and is the former AAA hitting coach for the Marlins; and he can spin a curveball with a spin rate reportedly at or near 3,000 RPM, which is an elite mark even for a MLB pitcher.

In the end, the 6-6 righty stuck to his high asking price, and will bet on himself in college. And it’s a good bet. You’ll see the athleticism and infielder background in his delivery, which he’s able to repeat thanks to his athleticism and he gets on top of his stuff very well for a high school pitcher his height. I’m starting what I believe was his final high school start at my favorite part:

Yeah, that’s a future strike-thrower with the ability to command. In the future, he should comfortably sit at 93-95 MPH with more in the tank. But the weapon is the curve. And more importantly, it looks like efficient spin too. Put me on record now: he leaves Texas, barring injury, a first-round pick closer to No. 1 overall than No. 30.

And I think eventually the rotation next season will be Ty Madden, Pete Hansen, and Tanner Witt. But there will be major competition for that third spot from the likes of Andre Duplantier II, incoming freshman Lucas Gordon, Jared Southard, Kolby Kubichek, Coy Cobb and perhaps more. Plus, Witt will be given every opportunity to hit too.

A reason some of these top two-way talents pick college is because they'll have the chance to hit and pitch, and Texas will give Witt every opportunity to impact the game in the infield and with his bat. Witt's advancements on the mound caught MLB evaluators' eyes, but once upon a time some services rated him the top prospect in Texas as an infielder.

Yes, the Longhorns have more impact freshmen joining the program beyond Witt including Gordon, who is capable of having a Hansen-like freshman season and grabbing the Sunday rotation spot.

Here are five signees you might not know as much about who could be immediate impact players for a really good team next season:

LUCAS GORDON – LHP – Notre Dame High School (Los Angeles, California)
Gordon understands how to compete, execute, and command his stuff beyond his years. A polished lefty who should throw strikes immediately, Gordon has a track record as a performer and started for the 18U Team USA team in the 2019 World Cup Championship.

Known more for his pitchability than his stuff, Gordon recently spent the time away from competitive games refining his stuff. He recently posted a video of a 91 MPH fastball with 100% spin efficiency. What does that mean?

All of the spin Gordon generates with his fastball aids movement of the pitch. As you can see above, Gordon generates a ton of movement from a 10:44 spin direction (think of it as a clock), and the significant amount of vertical and horizontal break along with the perfect efficiency means a fastball with a lot of rise and run.

Additionally, Gordon checks the makeup boxes on the mound, has a three-pitch mix he can throw for strikes, and lefties with his advanced strike-throwing ability almost always make an immediate impact in college.

DYLAN CAMPBELL – INF – Strake Jesuit (Houston, Texas)
Another incoming freshman with baseball in his blood, Campbell’s father Donovan played at Texas Southern and was a 22nd-round pick by the Braves in 1988, Campbell should compete to start at second base the moment he arrives. After the news of Duke Ellis’s surprising decision to sign as an undrafted free agent, it’s possible Cambpell, with his blazing speed, is in the mix to start in center field. Austin Todd sliding over would make sense, but Texas views right field at UFCU Disch-Falk Field as more difficult to play than center. Douglas Hodo makes the most sense in center field, but Campbell is certainly capable...

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