"No, the truth of the matter is that we've seen one okey-doke after another starting with the 2010 season and I've jumped on that hook, line and sinker enough times that I'm going to wait until I see that worm talking to a family member before I go for a bite again without caution.
“What I worry about with this team is that it's been sucked down into being average for so long that it truly doesn't know how to get out of it. It's a cycle that plagued the Longhorns from the mid-80s through the early portion of Mack Brown's tenure. Mediocrity has become muscle-memory around this program. Does it have the steel that a guy like Vince Young gave it to pull itself out of the Oklahoma domination 15 years ago? Is that who Sam is?
“Until I see a weekly level of anger and unbreakable resolution from the boys in burnt orange, you'll forgive me if I don't see 7-3 as unrealistic when it represents more than this program has regularly accomplished since Charlie Sheen was the highest-paid actor on television"
I wrote that six weeks ago. Oh, it feels like a lifetime ago at this point, but it was only four games, three likely "should've" losses, two definite losses and a school song crisis ago.
From my perspective, when you combined the question marks about this team in numerous personnel groupings, the never-seen-before virtual off-season in which a staff of seven new coaches were forced to work, the reality that this program lost four Big 12 games less than 12 months ago and the unpleasant truth that Tom Herman-led teams drop games every year to inferior teams on paper, nothing about this team potentially not making the Big 12 Championship game should register as a surprise.
Yet, the reaction from six weeks ago over was overwhelmingly on the side of me being searching for click-bait.
@longhorn73 "Someone is off his meds....Negative folks never change their stripes."
@Napaak "Lol so pessimistic"
@stingray10 "Jesus 7-3, that would really be fvcking terrible"
@qwanseeker "Barring unforeseen injuries or Covid issues, Texas will win the Big 12. Sam will WIN the Heisman. Texas will WIN the national championship."
Those were just a few of the comments in the first 20 replies of the column. It went on like that for 11 pages. Understand that I don't mean to call any of those posters out because a couple of them are really good posters and they were mostly in tune with the consensus of the Orangebloods universe.
I suppose my larger point is that when we look at where this team is situated heading into the midway point in the season, a lot of the team's issues were flashing as problem areas for the last nine months.
We knew the offensive line had some real concerns on the right side. We knew the defensive line lacked playmaking on the edge outside of Joseph Ossai. We knew the linebacker position hadn't been this much of a concern since John Mackovic was coaching. We knew this team struggled to cover and tackle for most of last season.
What this team had going for it was Sam Ehlinger, a sexy group of skill players on paper on offense and an improved coaching staff ... on paper.
When I first suggested seven wins was a possibility, some responded by saying things like, "That must mean you don't believe that Herman is going to make it."
Duh.
If there is a most damning thing about year four under Herman, it's that the program has obvious problem spots with roots than run deeper than the here and now.
* The offensive line is average at best and it's hard to see where and how that improvement changes into the 2021 season without a flood of grad transfers (and even that is an incredibly optimistic hope).
* The Texas defense currently has one playmaker in Joseph Ossai and that's basically it. For a defense that desperately needs more athleticism and playmaking off the edge, Chris Ash is currently leaning on one player to do it all and if he turns pro after this season, your guess is as good as mine as to who on the roster is remotely ready to replace 1/3 of his production.
* Outside of DeMarvion Overshown, who is developing nicely this season, I'm not sure there's another linebacker in the entire program that would play on a truly good defense. Not one.
Four years in and the foundation pieces of true championship teams (the offensive line and the front six/seven on defense) are in shambles if we're looking at them in terms of elite aspirations. All of the terrific skill position recruiting in the world won't get you beyond a bunch of 50-50 games in 2020 unless you can take control of games in between the hash marks in the trenches.
For all of the talk of Herman saving his job with a little six-game magic, it's just hard to see how that happens when every week is a coin-flip.
That's not negativity. That's reality. And we all should have seen it coming before the first game was played.
Confirmation bias is a hell of a drug ... until it isn't.
No. 2 - A quick snapshot of the final six games ...
Here's what my gut tells me about the final six weeks.
